維亞生物（01873.HK）公告點評：收購化藥CMO取得重大進展，服務+投資能力有望強化，維持“買入”評級
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
事件：
公司發佈公告，公司向朗華製藥股東支付2000萬元意向金，雙方將對公司收購朗華製藥60%股權的事項進行磋商。
點評：
擬收購化藥CMO優質公司，20年承諾淨利潤1.4億元，同比+53%。朗華製藥是國內優秀的化藥CMO公司，現有廠房已經通過FDA的GMP現場檢查，2019年收入超10億，淨利潤9140萬元，並承諾2020年淨利潤1.4億元，同比增長超53%。朗華製藥公司整體估值26.8億元，以承諾利潤計算，20年PE為19倍，作為高景氣行業中的高成長優秀公司，估值較為合理。若收購60%股權成功，假設朗華製藥2021年利潤在2020年的1.4億基礎上僅增長20%，將增厚公司21年約1億利潤。
協同效應顯著，公司服務和投資能力均有望強化。目前，公司CFS業務已經涵蓋了靶點研究、化合物發現兩大環節，隨着客户管線推進，對公司CMO能力提出了需求，並且公司客户以Biotech為主，較容易導流。公司在中間銜接的CMC環節已經組建了團隊，預計收購化藥CMO後將有顯著協同效應。值得注意的是，服務能力的延伸也將強化公司投資能力，延伸公司的EFS業務覆蓋環節。截至19年底，公司在手訂單同比增長92%達到3.5億元，並計劃投資1.5億元建設成都新基地，後續業績有望持續高增長。
前瞻佈局鑄就全球創新孵化器，疫情危中有機。研發分散化下，Biotech已經成為研發立項的主體。公司“CFS+EFS”模式佈局前瞻，進一步助推Biotech浪潮。新冠疫情短期影響主要在於復工推遲，具有一過性。CRO行業長期趨勢不變，疫情危中有機：CFS業務有望提高全球市佔率，加速業務縱向和橫向延伸；EFS業務將更具吸引力。
盈利預測與投資評級：公司作為全球領先的基於結構藥物發現服務商CFS+EFS佈局前瞻，業績將持續較高增長。由於收購還未落地，我們暫時維持公司20-22年EPS預測為0.27/0.39/0.56元，分別同比增長43%/43%/45%，對應20-22年PE為24/17/11倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：疫情持續；藥企研發投入不及預期；競爭加劇；匯率波動。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
