一文了解券商於小米(01810.HK)公布季績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
小米集團-W(01810.HK)今早股價造好，盤中曾高見13.16元，券商指其首季績績優預期，管理層對下半年前景指引正面，多間大行上調目標價。該公司昨收市後公布首季純利按年跌30.8%至21.64億人民幣，高於本網早前綜合4間券商預測上限的19.34億元人民幣；期內每股盈利0.091元人民幣；按非國際財務報告準則計算，經調整淨利潤按年升10.6%至23億人民幣，高於本網早前綜合9間券商預測中位數22.34億人民幣。
公司首季營業額按年升13.6%至497.02億元人民幣，高於本網早前綜合10間券商預測中位數的496.8億人民幣。首季公司智能手機部分收入按年增12.3%至303億元人民幣，首季智能手機銷量按年升4.7%至2,920萬部。受惠5G等高端機型拉動，首季公司全球智能手機平均售價按年升7.2%，智能手機分部毛利率按年升4.8個百分點至8.1%。
【季績勝預期 候海外復甦】
瑞銀發表報告表示，小米首季旗下智能手機於內地市場份額開始提升，受惠5G產品動力、電訊商新推廣優惠及華為面臨的壓力。該行調查顯示未來一年中國手機換機率穩定，其中傾向小米手機的受訪者輕微上升，海外手機市場佔有率上升較該行預期更快，海外MIUI月活躍用戶已為中國大陸的兩倍，物聯網參與率亦開始上升。
瑞銀行為，海外互聯網服務平均每用戶收入目前或微不足道，但相信情況將在明年隨MIUI月活躍用戶規模增加而改變。該行亦相信公司在商業對商業物聯網、及互聯網服務變現的工作取得穩定進展。該行上調對小米目標價，由13.8元升至15港元，維持「買入」評級。
高盛指小米首季業績勝預期，收入及經調整淨利率均高出高於市場預期。該行引述小米管理層指，中國及海外手機需求快速反彈，印度及歐洲手機激活率近期已分別回復至疫情況60%及90%水平。該行上調對小米2020年至2022年收入預測7%至11%，基於公司持續進入高端及5G市場導致手機平均價價上升，同時高端手機引入高端消費者，產生更高互聯網收入。該行上調對小米目標價由12元升至14.3港元，維持「買入」評級。
但摩根大通則估計，小米第二季將面臨挑戰，料智能手機銷付運將按季下跌33%，主要受疫情所影響，但相信海外市場於今年下半年仍會強勁。
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本網最新綜合8間券商對小米集團-W投資評級及目標價，5間券商上調目標價，7間給予「買入」、「增持」、「跑贏同業」或「跑贏大市」評級：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
瑞信│跑贏大市│15元->15.3元
中金│跑贏同業│13.5元->15元
美銀證券│買入│14元->15元
瑞銀│買入│13.8元->15元
高盛│買入│12元->14.3元
摩根士丹利│增持│14元
花旗│買入│12.6元
摩根大通│中性│12元
券商│觀點
瑞信│毛利率及純利勝預期，海外業務復甦牽引下半年展望
中金│建議買入，迎來印度及歐洲手機銷售復甦
美銀證券│手機市佔上升支援互聯網業務增長，並推股價值重估
瑞銀│首季業績穩固
高盛│經調整淨利及收入勝預期，所有業務增長穩固
摩根士丹利│互聯網服務表現勝預期，海外業務復甦上軌道
花旗│首季業績顯著勝預期，建議逢低買入
摩根大通│次季展望艱難
(fc/w)
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