中國奧園(03883.HK)：銷售跨越式增長，步入千億後時代，給予“買入”評級，目標價13.50港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：13.50港元
首次評級覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價13.50港元：公司自大灣區發家，深耕灣區佈局海內外。我們認為公司的銷售規模增長迅速，擁有城市更新、收併購等多元化的補地渠道，業績正在高速釋放。我們預計公司2020/2021年的營業收入為820/1022億元，同比增長62.2%/24.8%。核心淨利潤為63/77億元，同比增長52.3%/23.0%。首次覆蓋給予公司“買入”評級，目標價13.50港元，對應2020/2021年PE為5/4倍，相當於NAV折讓35%，較現價還有55%的增長空間。
多元化拓展土儲：公司擁有多元化的土地獲取方式，上市以來通過收併購拿地面積佔新增總面積比例達68%，收併購未來將持續作為公司的重要拿地方式。同時公司還在大灣區儲備了豐富的城市更新資源，中短期可孵化項目超過20個，可售面積為560萬平米，將在1-2年實現部分/全部轉化。
多區域全面佈局：公司深耕大灣區，並在境內四個城市羣及港澳、澳洲、加拿大市場廣泛佈局，形成完善的境內外業務佈局，其中土儲權益比例持續保持80%左右的較高水平。截至2019A總土地儲備為4503萬平米，平均土地成本為2536元/平米，佔銷售均價比例約25%，處於行業較低水平。
步入千億後時代：公司的銷售規模自2016年以來實現跨越式增長，2016-2019年銷售金額分別同比增長69%/78%/100%/29%，公司的中期可售貨值充足，2020年公司銷售目標制定偏保守，預計2021年將重新提速，2019至2022年銷售增長CAGR約20%。
業績正在高速釋放：公司的境內外融資通暢，預計淨負債率將維持在80%以下，平均融資成本逐年降低。公司待結轉儲備充足，截至2019年末已售未結收入為1700億元，為業績釋放奠定基礎。預計公司將保持40%派息（佔歸母淨利潤），當前股息收益率達到7%。
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