《大行報告》瑞信:假若中國收緊澳洲煤炭入口 料可支持內地煤價 首選神華及兗煤
瑞信發表研究報告,指煤炭進口量呈連續下跌趨勢,煤炭價格將會表現正面。該行認為,在2019年,中國從澳洲進口7,700萬噸煤炭,佔整體進口26%。該行認為,若進口配額收緊,獨立發電者或不得不消耗更多國內煤炭,對中國的煤炭價而言是好事。
該行指出,今年以來進口量已佔其全年預測的47%。據渠道調查顯示,一些港口已經用盡5月至6月份的進口配額允許本地海關清關。該行預期,5月至12月份煤炭進口量將按年下跌約27%至1.43億噸。
在需求改善及供應放緩的情況下,供需動力良好。首六大獨立發電企業的每日煤炭消耗量達到每日70萬噸,按年增長9.3%,主要港口的庫存按年下跌7.9%至5,500萬噸。由於大秦鐵路的維修和兩屆會議之前的嚴格安全檢查,供應已見放緩,加上緊縮的進口政策,相信在需求旺季內,煤炭價格將繼續上漲。首選中國神華(01088.HK)及兗州煤業(01171.HK),目標價分別是18元及7元,評級均為「增持」。
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