中國中藥(00570.HK)：全產業鏈中藥龍頭，行業領先地位穩固，維持“買入”評級，目標價5.0港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：5.0港元
投資要點
2019年配方顆粒板塊業績表現優異：公司2019年實現營業收入143.21億元人民幣（下同），同比增長27.2%；歸母淨利潤15.88億元，同比增長10.4%。配方顆粒和成藥板塊增長強勁，收入增速分別為29.3%和26.5%。
配方顆粒持續發力，行業新政下優勢有望擴大：在生產方面，公司通過提取工藝的集約化生產提高了中間產品的出膏率，降低了生產成本；在銷售方面，公司推進銷售渠道下沉，2019年配方顆粒新增發貨終端醫療機構約8700家，新增配藥機1300多套。《關於中藥配方顆粒品種試點統一標準的公示》的出台為配方顆粒建立了行業標準。在第一批160箇中藥配方顆粒質量標準中，公司提交了89個品種的質量標準，能更快地適應新的行業規則，先發優勢更顯著。此外，《基本醫療保險用藥管理暫行辦法（徵求意見稿）》未把中藥配方顆粒列入“不納入目錄的範圍的藥品”，短期政策風險基本消除。
成藥板塊經營穩健，短期減值影響利潤：2019年成藥板塊存量的核心臨牀品種穩健增長，零售市場實現了量價齊升，整體實現收入35.05億元，同比增長26.5%。受減值影響板塊利潤小幅下滑，扣非後淨利率與上一年度持平。
大健康與產地綜合業務佈局助力打通中藥全產業鏈：（1）中藥飲片：2019年公司主動放棄部分低毛利業務，導致板塊整體短期收入放緩。同時，公司籌建了精品飲片事業部，以“龍印中國藥材”精品飲片為載體，加大對優質產品的開發力度。（2）大健康和產地綜合業務：這兩塊業務目前還處於擴展階段，處於小額虧損狀態。待佈局成熟、與傳統業務的協同效應加強，公司有望打破傳統中藥行業地方政策為主導的市場壁壘，進一步鞏固行業龍頭地位。
盈利預測與估值：考慮到疫情對公司產品銷售、業務拓展等方面產生影響，我們下調2020-2021年預測收入至166.34和193.66億元，2022年預測收入為226.50億元，同比增長16.2%、16.4%和17.0%，2020-2021年下調幅度分別為2.2%和5.0%；下調2020-2021年預測歸母淨利潤至18.05和21.94億元，2022年預測歸母淨利潤為26.37億元，同比增長13.6%、21.6%和20.2%，2020-2021年下調幅度分別為12.1%和13.3%。下調目標價至5.0港元，對應2020-2022年分別為12.56、10.33和8.59倍市盈率，20PEG為0.72，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：疫情影響超預期，配方顆粒政策落地不及預期，新業務拓展低於預期。
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