You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
中國海洋石油(00883.HK):準備應對低油價環境,給予“中性”評級,目標價8.90港元
格隆匯 05-13 16:14

機構:國泰君安

評級:中性

目標價:8.90港元

中海油準備應對低油價環境。在實現了2020年第1季度產量同比增長9.5%的穩健運營業績後,公司宣佈年內將下調產量目標2.9%,並削減資本開支11.1%。在低油價環境下,公司憑藉其良好的財務狀況,至少在中短期內有較強的抗風險能力。

短期內油價將承受較大下行壓力,但供需狀況有望在後疫情時代得到改善。隨着隔離抗疫措施在全球範圍內的實行,近期石油需求驟降的幅度已超越OPEC+在短期內平衡供需的能力範圍。在後疫情時代,隨着產量的復甦滯後於需求的復甦,原油供需有望得到改善。我們對2020-2022年布倫特原油均價的假設分別為37美元/桶、45美元/桶和55美元/桶。?我們預計2020-2022年股東淨利分別為人民幣98.45億元、人民幣287.02億元和人民幣507.92億元。按公司最新指引,我們預計2020-2022年產量將以5.2%的年複合增長率增長。隨着公司各項控本降費措施的推進,我們估計桶油成本將被維持在30-31美元/桶油當量。我們預計2020年派息比率可達55%。

我們下調投資評級至“中性”,並降低目標價至8.90港元。我們此次下調投資評級,是考慮到疫情期間的風險回報比,而並非出於對後疫情時代油價復甦潛力的否定或對公司抗風險能力的擔憂。我們用DCF方法得出的每股估值為9.70港元。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account