大摩:基建需求和供給缺口支撐提價 升水泥股目標價
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,中國水泥行業百分百由中國需求推動,不受新冠疫情海外爆發的影響,現金流極佳,供給受限,意味著中國水泥股的估值有更多提升空間。
該行指,海螺水泥(0914.HK)、中國建材(3323.HK)、華潤水泥(1313.HK)為板塊首選,海螺水泥H股目標價上調至70港元,A股目標價70元人民幣;中國建材目標價由10.7港元上調至12港元;華潤水泥目標價亦由11.6港元上調至12.6港元。
大摩指出,5月中旬,長江三角洲市場水泥有望進一步提價,因需求增加、供給更緊,進而提升第二及第三季度的毛利。該行指,今年中國東部地區的供給缺口料擴大,環保原因可能造成更多水泥廠關閉,有望推動水泥價格於第三季度好於預期。該行續指,隨著很多新基建項目有望在下半年開工,建築需求第四季度將進一步上升,水泥價格有望再度超出市場預期。
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