日清食品(01475.HK)：疫情利好公司銷售，中港兩地均實現較快增長，維持“買入”評級，目標價7.61港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：7.61港元
投資要點
收入增速穩健，淨利潤增速因有效税率問題略有放緩：
2020年Q1，新冠疫情導致消費者對方便麪有較強的購買和囤貨意願，公司實現營業收入8.85億港元，同比增加10.6%；毛利率同比下降0.8個百分點至32.1%，主要是受產品結構影響（香港業務當中毛利率相對較低的出前一丁產品銷量大幅增加）；經營利潤同比增加25.7%至1.26億港元；實現歸母淨利潤9.9億港元，同比增加7.95%，增速放緩主要因期內的有效税率高於去年同期；基本每股盈利9.2港仙。
香港地區毛利率受產品組合影響略有壓力，經營利潤增速較快：
香港地區消費者對袋裝出前一丁有批量採購的行為，銷量增速較快帶動香港地區業務收入同比錄得11.0%的增長至3.58億港元；合味道因消費者疫情宅家對杯裝方便麪的需求降低，銷售較為平穩；其他產品（除依雲水）的銷售均有較好的增速表現。香港分部的毛利率受產品結構的影響略顯壓力，也是公司綜合毛利率略有降低的主要原因。疫情期間，公司適當削減產品的廣告和促銷費用，中國香港的經營利潤同比增長31.3%。
中國內地保持雙位數增長，合營公司預期下半年開始貢獻：
期內，中國內地的業務收入同比增加10.3%至5.26億港元，佔公司總營業收入的59.5%，如按當地貨幣計算，同比增長16.1%；其中，華南和華東地區均實現16%左右的銷售增長，華北地區因配送能力限制，增速略低但仍有雙位數字的提升。銷售提升疊加銷售費用率的下降，經營利潤同比增加22.7%，經營利潤率同比提升1.5pct至15.2%。此外，公司在上海成立的合營公司已如期於4月1日開始營運，將助其進一步開拓上海、周邊及其他一線城市業務，市場拓展已步入提速階段。
維持“買入”評級，目標價7.61港元：
我們持續看好公司在中國內地的業務拓展、穩健的經營管理風格、以及突出的成本管控下盈利能力的持續提升。考慮到疫情對公司的正面影響，我們略微上調原預測，預計2020-2022年EPS分別為0.28/0.32/0.35港元，上調目標價至7.61港元，對應2021年23.8倍PE，維持“買入”評級。
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