《大行报告》摩通:内地汽车需求复苏较预期快 对行业更正面
摩通发表的研究报告指,对内地汽车需求转向正面,内地4月份汽车销售按年增长4%,带来了正面惊喜,意味汽车销售结束连续21个月的跌势,而据该行早前的估算,销售至少要到7月份才转正。值得留意的是4月份销售强势是由於被压抑的需求,该行料势头可随着内地消费逐步回复而持续至5-6月,料增长很快回到正轨,但复苏的程度则仍未可知。
摩通相信下半年增长将维持在中、低单位数字,主要因为海外经济亦受疫情影响,加上中美贸易战亦有机会升级,影响到消费者信心。在高端市场方面,估计增长仍具韧性,而在五一假期期间,该行到访了宝马、宾驰、Tesla及通用汽车等的陈列室,留意到在高端及大众化市场在势头及人流方面均有差异。
而在电动车方面,该行料受Tesla Model 3带动的价格战将不可避免,相关车款售价由27.1万元人民币起,正面来看Tesla在内地掘起可带动个人消费者在电动车方面的消费,有别於过往仅企业购买电动车,估计新能源车销售全年将维持在120万台的水平,意味下半年将有显着反弹。
该行指出今月以来内地汽车股升约5%,主要受惠内地消费开始复苏,加上过去数周汽车销售表现改善,该行将今年汽车销售预测由早前的跌12%调整至跌8%,建议投资者选择在高端市场有较强能力的公司如中升控股(00881.HK)及华晨中国(01114.HK),或是有特别主题的公司如长安汽车、吉利汽车(00175.HK)及广汽集团(02238.HK)。(el/u) ~
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