中芯國際(00981.HK)：季報前瞻：科創板上市增厚每股淨資產，2Q指引有望優於預期，上調至“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
科創板上市增厚每股淨資產。 5月5日晚，公司發佈擬發行不超過16.86億股人民幣股份 （佔發行前股本比例約33%， 佔發行後股本比例25%）並將於科創板上市的公告。對比中微公司新增股份科創板發行時每股淨資產溢價超過500%、台積電過往 3年平均4.4倍的PB（MRQ）水平及當前科創板半導體板塊 8.2倍的平均PB（MRQ）水平，我們預計公司每股淨資產溢價發行將屬大概率事件。我們對公司新增股本淨資產發行溢價在 1-6 倍的區間作了敏感性測算：每股淨資產增厚幅度將落在 25-148%這一範圍（見表 3） 。
2Q指引有望優於預期。（1）14nm擴張進度超預期：維持 14nm產能從 4Q19 的 3K/月大幅提升至 2Q20 的 12K/月的判斷（對應產能利用率 40-50%） ，整體進度優於年底達至 15K/月的預期； （2）28nm 產能利用率繼續上行： 預計28nm產能利用率將從1Q的70-75%提升至2Q的 80-85%，系受益於海思、展訊及恆玄科技等客户投片量的增加（平均增加 10-20%）；（3）TWS 強勁需求有望提升40nm晶圓單價（幅度約+0-5%） ； （4）其他成熟製程保持滿載。
合理價值 22.8 港元/股，上調至“買入”評級。我們將公司的合理估值（PB）從前期的1.8 倍（20 年末歸母淨資產，考慮永久次級可換股證券）上調至 2.3 倍，以反映：（1）科創板上市可大為緩解公司中期融資壓力（每年CapEx平均約 30億美元），公司先進製程前景在資金層面將獲得有利保障；（2）PB 估值體系下，公司每股淨資產可能的增厚暗含股價的潛在漲幅。預測公司 20/21 年歸母淨利潤分別為 2.32/2.75億美元。綜上，公司合理價值為 22.8港元/股，上調至“買入”評級。
風險提示。美國繼續限制技術比例的風險，全球疫情持續擴大的風險。
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