旭輝控股集團(00884.HK)：銷售逐步修復，拿地相對積極，維持“強推”評級，目標價8.51港元
機構：華創證券
評級：強推
目標價：8.51港元
事件：
5 月 8 日，旭輝控股公佈，2020 年 4 月公司實現合同銷售金額 130.0 億元，同比下降 17.3%；實現合同銷售面積 81.6 萬平，同比下降 9.8%。合同銷售均價15,900元/平米，同比下降 8.3%。
點評：
4月銷售 130億、同比-17%，同比降幅收窄，20年計劃銷售 2,300億
4 月，公司銷售金額 130.0 億元，環比+28.7%、同比-17.3%；銷售面積 81.6 萬平，環比+30.6%、同比-9.8%，銷售同比降幅進一步收窄；銷售均價 15,900元平，環比-1.5%、同比-8.3%。1-4 月，累計銷售金額 354.0億元，同比-29.4%，較前值+5.5pct；累計銷售面積 220.5 萬平，同比-22.4%，較前值+5.9pct；累計銷售均價 16,100 元/平，同比-8.7%。20 年，公司預計可售貨值達 3,800 億元，其中一二線及準二線佔比 89%，20 年銷售目標 2,300 億元，對應同比+15%，對應可售貨值去化率 60.5%，鑑於公司深耕供需關係良好的一二線熱點城市，且佈局集中在長三角、中西部、環渤海等城市羣，可售貨值充裕望助力銷售穩增，並隨權益比例提升，權益銷售增速計劃或將更高。
前 4月拿地 278萬平，前 4月拿地/銷售面積比 126%，拿地相對積極
根據公司月度通訊，4月，公司新增 6 幅地塊，位於北京、重慶、青島、無錫、南昌，新增規劃建築面積117.1萬平，對應總地價54.8億元，平均樓面地價4,678元/平米，拿地權益比為 84%。1-4 月，公司新增規劃建築面積 277.5 萬平，同比-55.1%，拿地銷售面積比 126%，拿地相對較積極；對應總地價 160.5 億元，同比-44.0%；平均樓面地價 5,785 元/平，同比+24.7%，拿地/銷售均價比為 36%。公司通過公開市場、合作併購、舊改、商業勾地等多元化方式擴充優質土儲，公司土儲較充裕、聚焦於核心二線城市，有望助力後續穩健發展和結算利潤率穩定。
投資建議：銷售逐步修復，拿地相對積極，維持“強推”評級
旭輝控股集團起步上海，堅持高品質全國化佈局，深耕一二線，聚焦城市羣，銷售實現高增長，融資成本上市後持續下行，負債率一直安全可控，近幾年利潤率穩定，實現規模、利潤率、槓桿率三者動態均衡發展。公司佈局聚焦一二線+城市羣，預計銷售和業績有望穩增。我們維持預測公司 2020-22 年每股收益分別為 1.03、1.24、1.49元，現價對應 20/21年 PE分別為 5.6、4.7 倍，19A股息率高達 6.6%，維持目標價 8.51 港元，並維持“強推”評級。
風險提示：新冠肺炎疫情影響超預期、房地產調控政策超預期收緊
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