日清食品(01475.HK)：高端方便麪龍頭，穩步成長可期，首次“買入”評級，目標價8.05-8.05港元
機構：國金證券
評級：首次買入
目標價：8.05-8.05港元
投資邏輯
優質方便麪龍頭，深耕香港、大陸兩地。日清食品的母公司日清日本是世界 方便麪鼻祖和行業龍頭。公司佈局於香港、內地兩大市場，依託“日清”“公仔”2 大核心品牌和 5 個旗艦品牌，專注高端方便麪市場。目前香港市 場整體佔有率已超 60%，杯碗裝佔有率已超 80%，在內地華南部分省已居行業第 3。2016-2019 年收入複合增速達 5.5%，利潤複合增速約 37.6%，淨利 率持續改善，毛利率逐步回升。
方便麪市場逐漸回暖，各龍頭持續轉型高端化。方便麪因其便利性、快捷性，存在廣泛消費需求。2017 年以來，外賣補貼、促銷力度減弱，方便麪行業回暖。同時，消費升級帶動方便麪產品升級，容器面佔比和零售均價穩步上升。康師傅、統一、今麥郎等也持續佈局售價 5 元以上的高端市場，高端方便麪成增長新引擎。
產品聚焦，渠道分銷，成長性好，盈利能力強。對比方便麪業其他公司，1）產品：日清在內地聚焦海鮮口味，實現錯位競爭。同系列產品中，日清定價高 1-2 元，毛利率高於康師傅，與統一相當。同時，日清聚焦高端方便麪市場，產品結構更鮮明。2）渠道：日清更注重分銷，週轉次數偏長，區域集中在華南、華東的一、二線城市，線上渠道作補充。3）成長性和盈利性：收入規模不大但增速快於同行，銷售費率低，整體淨利率水平較高。
發展空間：內地區域擴張加速，香港推動業務多元化，疫情帶來機遇。1） 內地：增長潛力顯現，華東、華北佔比提升，增速在雙位數。增工廠、擴產線，產能制約逐步突破，增設聯絡處、成立合資公司分銷，渠道改善在路上。公司作為源起日本的優質方便麪龍頭，品牌和品質廣受認可，隨着渠道、產能建設的逐步加強，內地份額的增長值得期待。2）香港：公司在香港還產銷冷凍食品、零食、飲料等產品，目前是香港第二大冷凍點心廠商，市佔率超 25%，多樣化產品佈局為公司香港業務提供增量空間。3）疫情帶來機遇。受疫情影響，方便麪需求猛增，公司 2 月中旬陸續復工，有望在上半年實現高速增長。同時，疫情有望重新喚起消費者對高端方便麪的認識，為 日清未來發展帶來機遇。
投資預測
預計 20-22 年公司收入同比增長 14%/15%/13%，歸母淨利潤同比增長21%/23%/18%，EPS 分別為 0.28/0.35/0.41 港元。給予公司 2021 年 23 倍PE，目標價為 8.05 港元，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示
內地擴張不及預期，經濟下行風險，食品安全風險。
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