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《大行報告》摩通:內地汽車需求復甦較預期快 對行業更正面
阿思達克 05-12 15:44
摩通發表的研究報告指,對內地汽車需求轉向正面,內地4月份汽車銷售按年增長4%,帶來了正面驚喜,意味汽車銷售結束連續21個月的跌勢,而據該行早前的估算,銷售至少要到7月份才轉正。值得留意的是4月份銷售強勢是由於被壓抑的需求,該行料勢頭可隨著內地消費逐步回復而持續至5-6月,料增長很快回到正軌,但復甦的程度則仍未可知。

摩通相信下半年增長將維持在中、低單位數字,主要因為海外經濟亦受疫情影響,加上中美貿易戰亦有機會升級,影響到消費者信心。在高端市場方面,估計增長仍具韌性,而在五一假期期間,該行到訪了寶馬、賓馳、Tesla及通用汽車等的陳列室,留意到在高端及大眾化市場在勢頭及人流方面均有差異。

而在電動車方面,該行料受Tesla Model 3帶動的價格戰將不可避免,相關車款售價由27.1萬元人民幣起,正面來看Tesla在內地掘起可帶動個人消費者在電動車方面的消費,有別於過往僅企業購買電動車,估計新能源車銷售全年將維持在120萬台的水平,意味下半年將有顯著反彈。

該行指出今月以來內地汽車股升約5%,主要受惠內地消費開始復甦,加上過去數周汽車銷售表現改善,該行將今年汽車銷售預測由早前的跌12%調整至跌8%,建議投資者選擇在高端市場有較強能力的公司如中升控股(00881.HK)及華晨中國(01114.HK),或是有特別主題的公司如長安汽車、吉利汽車(00175.HK)及廣汽集團(02238.HK)。(el/u) ~

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