中泰國際：上調丘鈦科技(1478.HK)目標價至15.6港元 評級“買入”
中泰國際發佈報告稱，略微調整對丘鈦科技(1478.HK)的盈利預測，2020年至2022年的每股盈利分別為0.56/0.72/0.89元人民幣，考慮內地公共衞生事件的控制有效、將迎5G換機潮、手機拍攝升級仍為重要趨勢及公司市場競爭力提升，該行認為公司目前估值吸引，估值將逐步回升，維持25倍20年預測市盈率，相應上調目標價至15.60港元，相對現價有45.8%的潛在升幅，重申“買入”評級。
該行表示，公司4月攝像頭模組銷售數量為3918.6萬件，環比增長19.8%，同比恢復增長，增速為2.6%。其中，1000萬像素及以上攝像頭模組銷售數量環比及同比分別增長34.1%及55.7%，尤其是3200萬像素及以上攝像頭模組銷售數量增長顯著，環比及同比分別增長63.2%及87%。
4月攝像頭模組銷售數量的環比增長原因：主要由於客户項目週期影響、公司3月產能輸出受公共衞生事件防控導致部分人員無法投入生產影響及內地公共衞生事件防控有效，以致於需求逐步回升；同比恢復增長的原因：主要由於高像素產品銷量增長強勁抵消了800萬像素及以下產品的銷量下降。
雖然公司攝像頭模組銷售數量受到公共衞生事件影響，今年首4個月同比下降0.05%，但產品結構持續改善，3200萬像素及以上佔比已達27.7%，較2019年全年的9.6%有大幅提升，並高於全年指引的25%，800萬像素及以下攝像頭模組佔比已降至28.3%(2H19為40.5%)，該行認為，這反映手機持續向高像素升級的趨勢不變及公司保持較強的市場競爭力，預期產品結構升級可持續。
該行稱，公司受益於屏下指紋識別模組發展，4月指紋識別模組銷量高速增長且產品結構持續改善。雖然受公共衞生事件影響，但4月屏下指紋識別模組銷量的高速增長，帶動指紋識別模組銷售數量環比及同比增速分別達3.2%及17.0%，今年首4個月指紋識別模組銷量同比增長2.3%，其中屏下指紋識別模組的今年累積佔比逐月提升，首4個屏下指紋識別模組佔比達60%(2H19年為48.3%)，有機會帶動指紋識別模組均價及毛利率繼續改善。
公司客户主要為內地手機品牌商及ODM廠商，最終用户以內地為主，僅小部分為印度等東南亞國家用户。目前內地公共衞生事件防控效果顯著。根據中國信通院數據，3月內地智能手機出貨量同比下降23.3%，同比降幅改善，上市新機型為39款，其中5G手24款，反映在內地5G大規模建設及公共衞生事件好轉下手機廠商恢復積極。
該行認為，內地智能手機銷量將逐步回暖，並將於今年迎來5G換機潮，預期手機廠商對內地市場的判斷將逐步偏向樂觀。目前來看，公共衞生事件對未來訂單影響有限，但仍需持續關注海外需求受公共衞生事件影響的變化。
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