中糧肉食(01610.HK)：投資價值分析報告：千淘萬漉雖辛苦，吹盡狂沙始見金，首次“買入”評級，目標價4港元
機構：中信證券
評級：首次買入
目標價：4.0港元
核心觀點
中糧肉食是中國最主要的豬肉運營商之一。行業產能深度去化，豬價景氣延長，公司生豬養殖成本控制得當，產能逐步恢復，下半年出欄量有望高增。我們預計公司2020/2021/2022年調整前淨利潤為38.1億元、 38.0億元和18.6億元， 當前股價對應PE分別為3/3/5倍。首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級, 目標價4港元，對應2020年PE為4倍。
中糧肉食是中國最主要的豬肉運營商之一。公司 2016年港股上市，主營業務包括生豬養殖、生鮮豬肉、肉製品、肉類進口貿易等。實際控制人為中糧集團。
豬價：產能深度去化，豬價景氣延長。本輪週期行業能繁母豬去化幅度深，種豬產能受損，產能恢復需 2-3年。三元母豬效率低，難助行業產能快速恢復。肉類供給缺口料持續，高豬價或維持 2-3年。
生豬養殖：成本行業領先，產能逐步恢復。公司存欄能繁母豬逐步恢復，下半年出欄有望高增，全年出欄量或達到210萬頭。生物安全防控體系見效，生產成本控制得當，2020Q1 商品豬頭均盈利超 2000 元，處於上市公司第一梯隊，全年盈利有望高增。
其他業務：生鮮豬肉：公司黃岡新廠竣工，中期總產能提升；品牌肉佔比藉助新冠肺炎疫情需求結構的變化快速提升，全年收入佔比有望達到 35%，板塊盈利能力增強。肉類進口：得益於豬價高位，今年肉類貿易量有望再上台階。中期來看順應我國肉類高進口趨勢延續，公司肉類進口量預計將長期保持增長趨勢。
風險因素：中美貿易爭端，政策風險，養殖疫病爆發，自然災害，豬價上漲不及預期等。
投資建議： 我們預計公司 2020/2021/2022 年調整前 EPS 分別為 0.98/0.97/0.48元，當前股價對應 PE分別為 3/3/5 倍。豬價格上漲確定性強，公司成本控制得當，下半年出欄有望高增，全年業績預計高增。參考港股和 A 股可比公司週期高點年份對應的估值水平，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價 4 港元，對應2020 年 4 倍 PE。
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