香港交易所(00388.HK)：2020Q1市場活躍與新機制雙重推動主營業務增長，維持"增持"評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：增持
核心觀點：
公司公告 2020 年一季度業績，2020Q1 香港交易所實現總營業收入40.09 億港元，同比減少 6.5%；歸屬股東淨利潤 22.62 億港元，同比減少 13.3%；基本EPS1.80 港元/股。主營業務收入實現良好增長（同比增長 19.1%），但受累一季度市場波動，當期投資收益虧損 0.47 億港元，同比減少 9.3億港元。
本土市場交易量回升，互聯互通機制交易持續活躍。（1）聯交所股本證券產品日均成交金額同比增長 39%，帶動交易費與交易數據使用費分別同比增長 45%與26%。（2）互聯互通機制交易持續活躍，滬深股通成交金額創新高。（3）上市費在 IPO 下滑中呈現韌性，主要得益主板 IPO 公司數目創新高，及一季度再融資總額同比大增超過 260%。投資收益回落主要由於公司項目分部中集體投資計劃當期虧損。
集團業績顯著受市場成交驅動，具備彈性，此外穩定高股息率又兼備強防禦屬性。業務亮點展望包括（1）上市機制改革穩步推行，吸引新經濟公司上市與中概股迴歸，集團有望持續受益。 （2）交易機制完善及金融對外開放深化有望持續活躍滬深港通及債券通交易量。根據彭博報道，香港證監會主席雷添良迴應現任總裁李小加約滿卸任時，表示互聯互通等重大政策不會因個別人事變動有所改變。此外央行發佈《境外機構投資者境內證券期貨投資資金管理規定》，推動金融市場進一步開放。預測公司 2020、2021 年實現歸母淨利潤 102.18、107.7億港元， EPS 8.06港元/股和8.50元/股，對應最新收盤價PE為30.6x29.0x。從歷史估值來看，公司PE（TTM）中樞在30 倍-44 倍之間，當前處於估值低位。給予 2020 年 35xPE 估值，對應合理價值 282.港元/股，維持對公司“增持”評級。
風險提示：疫情及地緣政治不穩定影響市場成交及上市公司數目，市場大幅波動導致投資虧損，高管變動導致政策延續不確定等。
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