特步國際(01368.HK)：疫情影響主品牌銷售承壓，多品牌戰略值得期待，維持“增持”評級
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
本報告導讀：
受疫情影響，Q1 零售同比下滑，折扣力度加大，存貨週轉良好。伴隨疫情好轉，銷售有望恢復，多品牌戰略持續推進，未來可期，維持增持評級。
摘要：
維持增持評級：考慮到疫情對於公司銷售的負面影響，下調 2020-2022年淨利潤至 5.19/6.39/7.56 億人民幣，對應 EPS 為 0.21（-0.06）/0.25（-0.07）/0.30（-0.07）元人民幣，摺合約 0.23/0.28/0.33 港元，當前市值對應2020年約13倍PE，維持增持評級。
疫情下 Q1 銷售承壓，Q2 有望環比改善。公司發佈 2020 年 Q1 運營情況，特步主品牌全渠道零售同比下跌20%-25%。拆分來看，1月為公司銷售旺季，整體零售流水增長強勁。2 月負面影響最為嚴重，3月開始伴隨疫情好轉，銷售逐步復甦。預計二季度流水情況將環比改善。
打折促銷拉低毛利率，存貨週轉健康，積極開拓線上銷售渠道。特步品牌 2020 年一季度折扣率 6.5 至 7 折，2019Q1 折扣率約為 7.5 折，同比折扣力度加深。主要系疫情期間公司為刺激銷售，開展多種打折促銷活動，從而拉低主品牌毛利率。2020Q1存貨週轉約為 5.5個月，同比增加約 1.5 個月。存貨週轉依舊保持健康水平，現金流充裕，整體運轉良好。面對疫情挑戰，公司在保持原有主流線上銷售平台優勢的同時，積極試水直播、前沿銷售等多種模式。通過朋友圈熟人帶貨、微信小程序等方式 ，挖掘私域流量潛力，獲取更多客流。產品端，公司主動增加線上線下同款同價的佔比，提升產品設計和品質。
看好多品牌發展戰略，細分市場潛力進一步挖掘。2019 年公司通過合資運營和收購搭建多品牌矩陣，目前已經擁有大眾、專業和時尚運動三大業務板塊，覆蓋不同細分市場的消費者。藉助公司自身強大的銷售網絡和高效的供應鏈系統，新品牌有望快速佔據中國市場，不斷擴大銷售規模，成為公司業績增長的不竭動力。
風險提示：海內外疫情持續負面影響，新品牌開拓不及預期， 、電商銷售不及預期。
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