香港交易所(00388.HK)2020年一季度業績點評：短期市場波動最受益標的之一，持續看好長期相對收益前景，維持“增持”評級，目標價281.0港元
機構：光大證券
評級：增持
目標價：281.0港元
◆1Q20 業績公佈
港交所 5/7 公佈 1Q20 業績，總收入同比下降 7%至 40.1 億港幣（約佔我們全年收入預測的 23.3%），歸母淨利潤同比下降 13%至 22.6 億港幣（約佔我們全年盈利預測的 22.6%）。1Q20 業績受投資淨虧損約 4,700 萬港幣（vs.1Q19 投資淨收益約 8.8 億港幣）、以及運營成本上升（EBITDA 利潤率同比下降 3.8 個百分點至 73.6%）等因素影響。
◆短期市場波動加劇導致交易量放大
1Q20 主營業務（剔除投資淨虧損）收入同比增長 19%至 40.6 億港幣，主要由於波動率加劇/交易量放大。1）1Q20 現貨市場日均交易量同比增長 20%至 1,209 億港幣；其中，股本證券日均交易量同比增長 39%（vs.股本衍生產品日均交易量同比下降 35%）。2）1Q20 港股通總收入同比增長 74%至 4.0 億港幣（總收入佔比約 10.1%）；其中，南下日均交易量同比增長 82%（南下日均交易量佔比上升至約 11.4%），北上日均交易量同比增長 103%。3）1Q20 期交所金融衍生產品日均交易量同比增長 15%，LME 收費合約日均交易量同比增長 12%。
◆維持短期受益於市場波動、以及長期相對收益標的觀點不變
鑑於港交所的業務屬性與產品覆蓋範圍，我們維持公司為短期市場波動最受益標的之一，維持公司為長期相對收益標的觀點不變。1）持續看好包括生物/科技、以及中概股等優質標的帶動 IPO、以及增厚現貨市場交易/結算的業務前景（預計 2H20E 部分中概股有望在香港市場二次上市）；2）持續看好港股通（尤其北上）交易量增長趨勢；3）2021/10 李小加總裁卸任不改長期戰略規劃與執行，持續看好 A 股國際化帶動的港交所直接受益屬性、以及公司在債券通/FICC 的長期戰略佈局。
◆維持“增持”評級
我們維持 2020E/2021E/2022E 歸母淨利潤分別約100.3 億港幣/107.0億港幣/112.6 億港幣。維持 DDM 目標價 HK$281.0（對應約 35.5x 2020EPE），維持“增持”評級。
◆核心風險提示
IPO、以及市場日均交易量不及預期，政策風險，全球疫情加劇導致的金融與市場風險。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
