中芯國際(00981.HK)：迴歸科創的意義，維持“強烈推薦”評級
機構：方正證券
評級：強烈推薦
事件：2020年5月5日，中芯國際公告擬發行不超過16.86億股人民幣股份，並將於科創板上市。募集資金扣除發行費用後，擬約40%用於投資於“12寸芯片SN1項目”，約20%用作公司先進及成熟工藝研發項目的儲備資金，約40%用作為補充流動資金。
助力14nm擴產及N+1研發，為加速追趕世界一流再添動力
據人民網，SN1項目是SMIC的先進工藝產線，包涵14nm及N+1製程的研發及生產。公司14nm產能今年有望從3kwpm擴產至15kwpm，根據每千片產能的CAPEX需求在1.5億美金至2.5億美金計算，擴12k產能資金需求在18億至30億美金。此次擬科創板融資，為公司先進製程技術研發及產線擴產鋪平了道路。公司有望加速技術迭代，逐漸達到世界一流IC製造水平。
航母型公司起航，“中國芯”和“中芯國際產業鏈”的大機遇
中芯國際作為國產晶圓代工龍頭，近年和大陸國產設備、材料、設計廠商密切合作，成為了國產IC產業生態的“航母型公司”。2019年底公司增資“北方集成電路技術創新中心”，與國產設備/材料廠商共同迭代產品，構建國產IC生態。此次擬科創板融資將進一步提高“國產IC航母”的實力，促進國產IC生態發展，相關“中芯國際產業鏈”企業將受益。
“紅籌回A”政策利好海外上市科技股，港股華虹半導體、舜宇光學等科技股有望估值修復。
根據證監會4月30日發佈的《關於創新試點紅籌企業在境內上市相關安排的公告》，標準之一為“市值200億人民幣以上，且擁有自主研發、國際領先技術，科技創新力較強，同業競爭中處於相對優勢地位”，多家海外上市科技股符合要求。華虹半導體、舜宇光學科技等優質海外上市科技股有望迎來估值修復行情。
投資建議:
半導體行業已處於上行週期，中芯國際2020年將重啟增長，同時先進製程研發進展順利。我們預計公司2020-2022年實現收入36.97/43.56/48.47億美元，每股淨資產為1.28/1.34/1.41美元，對應當前市值的PB為1.54、1.47、1.39倍，維持“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示：疫情帶來的終端需求不確定性；擴產後折舊提高或使2H20毛利率承壓；技術研發不及預期；行業競爭加劇；中美貿易摩擦加劇。
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