好未来( TAL.N ) FY20Q4业绩点评：Q4收入增长放缓，21Q1收入指引复苏强劲，维持“买入”评级
机构：西部证券
评级：买入
核心结论
好未来发布FY20Q4业绩报告，FY2020Q4（2019.12-2020.02）实现营业收入8.58亿美元，同比增长18%，增速放缓主要受疫情影响，该收入符合下调后的业绩指引（8.50-8.72亿美元）。受广告费用投放加大的影响，利润端略低于预期，20Q4实现归母净利润-9007.4万美元，同比下滑190.4%；FY2020实现归母净利润-1.1亿美元，同比下降130.0%。
FY20Q4收入增长放缓，网校收入占比提升。20Q4培优和网校收入增速均放缓，其中培优小班收入同比增长仅6%，学而思网校收入同比增长68%。收入增速放缓主要由于疫情期间公司加大了课程的折扣力度，20Q4培优和网校的ASP分别下滑23%、17%（美元口径），从业务收入占比上看，网校收入占比24%，环比提升7pct，网校人次突破200万，正价人次同比增长96%，表现亮眼。
Q4毛利率下滑，费用率抬升明显。FY2020毛利率55.1%，同比提升0.5pct，20Q4公司毛利率53%，同比下滑5pct。Q4毛利率下滑主要原因为：1）受疫情影响，公司调低了课程价格；2）疫情期间线下租金成本较为刚性，但线下转线上一定程度上增加了带宽成本。期间费用率明显上升，FY2020销售费用率26.1%,同比提升7.2pct，管理费用率24.3%，同比提升1.7pct。
维持“买入”评级。我们略下调公司FY2021-FY2022年的收入和净利润预测，新增FY2023年的盈利预测，我们预计FY2021-2023年实现收入分别为46.57/63.34/77.91亿美元，同比增长42%/36%/23%，实现归母净利润4.25/7.27/8.82亿美元，对应EPADS分别为0.71/1.21/1.47美元,FY21/22/23年PE分别为77/45/37X。疫情期间公司依然取得稳健增长，彰显龙头实力，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：课外辅导政策变动；获客成本居高不下。
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