《大行報告》麥格理首予藥明生物(02269.HK)「跑贏大市」評級 目標價153.56元
麥格理發表的研究報告指,相信藥明生物(02269.HK)可受惠醫藥行業由化學藥轉向生物藥,而公司在藥物開發上亦採進取態度,估計有助拉開與國際同業的距離。該行指出生物藥市場增長跑贏整體藥物市場增長,而內地的生物藥市場增長快,2016-2021年的年複合增長約9.6%,環球及內地的銷售增長亦迅速。該行指出藥明生物全球市場佔有率約3%,而在內地市佔率則達75.6%,並已覆蓋生物藥開發的所有步驟,此外該行相信參與藥物開發是一個創新的商業模式,同時亦獲其他國際同業採納,受惠內地生物科技同業的進步,相信藥明較其他國際同業有優勢,可與小型的生物科技企業合作開發產品。
該行指出藥明生物的口號是「跟隨藥物分子發展階段擴大業務」(Follow-the-Molecule),意思是提供全面的藥物開發服務,由臨床藥物開發到生產及商業化。該行相信公司的三個創新平台將是達成目標的關鍵,有助將新藥開發時間由行業平均的18-24個月縮短至15個月。而對生物藥的醫藥合同定制研發生產企業(CDMO)來說,產能亦是十分重要,但相關範疇需要大量投資及人才,而公司的產能於2020年底將由現時的52kL提升至280kL。
該行指出公司現時估值低於其五年平均,但就高於其他CDMO同業,相信其估值存在溢價是因為公司在生物藥CDMO行內具先發優勢,加上早期與創新生物科技公司已有合作故有更多潛在上行,首予「跑贏大市」評級,目標價153.56元,意味有30.5%的上行空間。
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