标普料内银不良贷款率将升至10%
评级机构标普发表报告指,料新冠肺炎疫情将冲击中国银行业的资产质素,料不良贷款率将升至10%,较新冠肺炎疫情前增加一倍。报告指,中国银行业在处理客户贷款时,相信将偏向宽松处理,为受疫情影响而现金流中断的贷款人,提供宽限期和其他宽松措施,预计相关大部分贷款只会列为关注类贷款甚至是正常贷款,而非不良贷款。在计及银行的贷款宽限处理後,估计中国银行业的不良贷款率将升至10%,并料今年中国银行业官方报告的平均拨备覆盖率将由200%略为降至190%。
不过标普相信,中国银行业有能力消化不良资产,维持内银在标普银行业国家地区风险评估(BICRA)中的第六级不变。至於盈利能力,报告指,银行信贷成本上升或使银行业的利润降至非常低的水平,甚至会令部分银行出现亏损,惟金融机构存放在央行的超额存款准备金可提供缓冲,为银行业释放资金。(vi/k)
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