萬洲國際(00288.HK)：Q1延續高速增長，海外業務估值過低，維持“買入”評級，目標價10.6港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：10.6港元
投資要點
1、Q1延續高增長，經營利潤同比+61.3%。公司20Q1收入62.82億美元，同比+18.9%；經營利潤5.50億美元，同比+61.3%；歸母淨利潤（生物公允價值調整前）3.53億美元，同比+80.1%，超彭博一致預期。
2、中國業務：肉製品提價+進口低價豬肉致經營利潤同比+21.1%。20Q1收入25.27億美元，同比+43.3%，主要由於豬價上漲和肉製品提價而銷量小幅下滑。經營利潤2.70億美元，同比+21.1%；其中肉製品利潤同比+31%，主要由於肉製品提價效果凸顯；生鮮豬肉利潤同比-21.3%，由於偏低的屠宰量削弱盈利空間，部分被低價進口凍肉抵消。
3、美國業務：經營利潤同增105.5%，來源於屠宰價差擴大及生豬養殖的對衝收益。20Q1收入31.61億美元，同比+2.2%。經營利潤2.26億美元，同比+105.5%；其中肉製品利潤同比-34.2%，主要由於在公共衞生事件下，對因餐飲服務被關停所導致的預期損失作出撥備約4000萬美元；生鮮豬肉利潤同比+30.9%，由於豬肉出口需求強勁，屠宰價差較好；生豬養殖扭虧同增1.74億美元，由於對衝收益貢獻。
4、FY20預計盈利趨勢延續，業績彈性仍來自於美國業務，中國業務承壓。
美國生鮮豬肉業務：目前中美豬肉價差5倍，疊加關税減免邏輯，可帶來美國豬肉價格提升從而促使屠宰價差擴大，FY19生鮮豬肉業務盈利處歷史低位，FY20後續有望繼續大幅改善；養殖業務：雖受累於生豬價格低迷，但對衝後仍能保證盈利；肉製品業務：不確定性加大，Q2公共衞生事件對公司影響仍然存在，具體影響程度需要看後期公共衞生事件發展控制。中國生鮮豬肉業務：由於生豬出欄量明顯下降，預計今年屠宰量下降，且低價凍肉庫存逐漸消耗，預計該業務FY20利潤將下降，但公司會加大進口來減輕成本壓力；肉製品業務：繼續提價策略保障利潤穩定增長，但後續增速將低於Q1。
5、我們的觀點：公司中國肉製品業務受公共衞生事件影響較小，盈利穩定增長，但生鮮豬肉業務後續承壓。而美國肉製品業務餐飲渠道受到衝擊，但豬肉出口需求依然強勁，投資邏輯未變。非洲豬瘟將帶來養殖和屠宰行業的整合，雙匯是中國最大的屠宰企業，有望發揮規模效應提高市場份額。雖公司業績高速增長，但公共衞生事件加大不確定性，我們維持盈利預測，預計2020-22年歸母淨利潤（生物公允價值調整前）為14.9/15.4/16.0億美元，同比+8.0%/+3.3%/+3.9%；維持目標價10.6港元，對應2020/21年PE為13.5/13x。
公司當前除雙匯外的海外業務估值為-16億元，PE亦位於歷史低位，2019年股息率達4.0%，維持買入評級。
風險提示：貿易不及預期，匯兑風險，美國開工及餐飲恢復不及預期。
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