大和:對內銀維持中性看法 首選招商銀行(3968.HK)
大和發表研究報告指,中國內地的H股銀行今年首季的撥備前利潤(PPOP)按年增長7.2%,主要由於淨利息收入穩健增長,以及成本與收入比率按年下跌0.8個百分點。該行對內銀業維持中性看法,並繼續看好有高質量增長及健康資產質素的銀行,當中首選為招商銀行,其後依次為建設銀行、工商銀行等。
大和表示,行業的淨利息收入增長6.9%,主要由於貨款資產的強勁增長。總貸款按年增長12.2%,為2017年以來最快,這有助抵銷淨息差的按年下跌,並將為今年下半年淨利息收入強勁增長打下基礎。
該行又預料,今年第二季行業的PPOP將繼續按年增長7%。今年首季行業的不良貸款按年增長7.6%,但由於貸款迅速增長,多數銀行的不良貸款都按季基本持平。不過該行認為,新型冠狀病毒疫情或無法避免地導致今年首季末的逾期貸款比率等提高。同時認為,銀行的收債能力自3月份下旬恢復,零售貸款質量已開始回升。因此鑑於相關的不確定性,大和預料第二及第三季不良貸款形成率將上升,而行業中,四大內銀及招行有更好緩衝,並可能面臨較小的不良貸款壓力。
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