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《大行報告》中金:中海油(00883.HK)長期向好前景不變 維持「跑贏行業」評級
阿思達克 05-05 14:20
中金發表報告指,中海油(00883.HK)發布今年第一季經營數據,油氣淨產量1.315億桶油當量,按年增長9.5%,高於業內同行;資本開支169億元人民幣,按年增長20.1%,佔調減前全年資本開支計劃18.8%,佔調減後全年資本開支計劃21.2%。雖然公司季報不披露財務數據,但考慮到第一季公司實現原油均價為每桶49美元,預計公司第一季仍有望保持盈利。

該行表示,公司宣布將今年資本開支從此前的850至950億元人民幣,下調11%至750億至850億元人民幣,是公司首次在除策略展望會以外的時間調整全年資本開支計劃,中金認為一定程度上反映了史無前例的油價跌幅對行業的影響。公司隨後將今年油氣產量目標亦下調2.9%至5.05億至5.15億桶油當量,但中長期目標維持不變。另外,管理層表示資本開支計劃11%的降幅主要基於自下而上的項目分析,而國際同行主要出於流動性擔憂對資本開支進行了大幅下調。

中金認為,中海油長期向好前景維持不變。管理層在業績電話會中,比往常花了更多時間分析油價趨勢,預計年底油價有望回升至每桶45至50美元(疫情前價格預測為每桶60美元),隨著市場恢復正常,預計油價明年有望持續提升。該行又認為,公司今年的主要財務目標是維持自由現金流為正,公司擁有較多保障達成這一目標的措施,包括但不限於進一步下調資本開支和現金運營成本開支。

中金維持對中海油的盈利預測和目標價10.3元,對應今年市盈率24.7倍,維持「跑贏行業」評級,並認為短期油價回升是潛在催化劑。

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