《季績前瞻》券商料港交所(00388.HK)首季多賺3%至7% 受惠交投升 但投資收益不明朗
港交所(00388.HK)將於本周四(7日)公布今年首季業績，市場預期受惠現貨及衍生工具市場交投暢旺，料首季業鞏固，本網綜合2間券商料港交所今年首季純利預測介乎26.91億至27.97億元，較去年首季26.08億元，按年升3.2%至7.2%。
綜合2間券商料港交所今年首季收入預測介乎44.55億至46.08億元，較去年首季42.88億元，按年增長3.9%至7.5%。但由於新冠疫情蔓延全球，令部份國家經濟活動一度停擺，觸發金融市場波動，市場關注港交所旗下首季投資收益面臨不明朗因素，綜合2間券商料港交所今年首季投資收益及雜項收益預測介乎4.34億至5.99億元，較去年首季8.82億元按年下挫32.1%至50.8%。
【日均成交增 料收益鞏固】
據港交所已公布月度數據，本港證券市場今年首季平均每日成交金額為1,209億元，較去年同期的1,011億元上升20%，首季交易所買賣基金平均每日成交金額為63億元，較去年同期升47%；衍生產品市場方面，首季期貨及期權平均每日成交量為129.82萬張合約，較去年同期升9%、首季股票指數期貨平均每日成交量為55.7萬張合約按年升15%。
摩根士丹利料港交所首季受惠港股交投，旗下交易費及結算費收入鞏固，料交易費及交易系統使用費按年升17%至17.39億元、估計結算及交收費可按年升30%至10.81億元，指季內現貨市場日均成交額按年升19%(按季升56%)，並指首季互聯互通南向及北向交易量，亦料可達推出以來的新高，按年及按季增約90%。雖然部份新股因新冠肺炎疫情影響下或推遲上市，MSCI的A股期貨亦可能延遲推出，但該行對集團長期展望仍然看好，維持對其「增持」投資評級，目標價270元。
摩根大通料港交所首季純利將按年升7.2%至27.97億元，估計收入按年升7.5%至46.08億元，料季內投資收益及雜項收益按年跌32%至5.99億元，但估計港股今年第二季日均成交額預測，會由首季1,209.4億元降至本季1,008.39億元，料其今年第二季純利預測為26.15億元(按年升0.7%)。
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本網綜合2間券商料港交所2020年首季純利預測介乎26.91億至27.97億元，較2019年首季26.08億元，按年升3.2%至7.2%。
券商│今年首季純利預測│按年變幅
摩根大通│27.97億元│+7.2%
摩根士丹利│26.91億元│+3.2%
按港交所2019年首季純利26.08億元推算
本網綜合2間券商料港交所2020年首季收入預測介乎44.55億至46.08億元，較2019年首季42.88億元，按年升3.9%至7.5%。
券商│今年首季收入及其他收益預測│按年變幅
摩根大通│46.08億元│+7.5%
摩根士丹利│44.55億元│+3.9%
按港交所2019年首季收入及其他收益42.88億元推算
本網綜合2間券商料港交所2020年首季投資收益及雜項收益預測介乎4.34億至5.99億元，較2019年首季8.82億元，按年下跌32.1%至50.8%。
券商│今年首季投資收益及雜項收益預測│按年變幅
摩根大通│5.99億元│-32.1%
摩根士丹利│4.34億元│-50.8%
按港交所2019年首季投資收益及雜項收益8.82億元推算
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