澳優（01717.HK）：盈喜再超預期，發展邏輯加速兑現，維持“買入”評級，目標價19港元
機構：天風證券
評級：買入
目標價：19港元
事件：
公司發佈一季度正面盈利預告。2019年一季度，公司預計獲得營收19.1-19.35億元，同比增長25.7%-27.4%。歸母淨利潤2.61-2.71億元，同比增長72.2%-78.8%。經調整後淨利潤2.9-3億元，同比增長49.1%-54.2%
點評：
核心自有品牌奶粉高增，優秀運營能力保障超越行業的增長。分拆來看，2019年一季度，公司羊奶粉收入約為9.3-9.39億元，同比增長36.1%-37.4%；公司牛奶粉收入約為7.6-7.72億元，同比增長34.1%-36.3%。私人品牌及其他收入約為2.2-2.24億元，同比減少16.8%-18.3%。公司一季度收入穩健增長，受疫情影響較小，一方面是因為奶粉剛需高頻的產品屬性，更重要的是公司優秀的運營能力，及時將營銷模式由線下高效轉為線上，並全方位保證海外生產和物流的正常運行。
利潤高增長，考慮公司一季度的捐贈，實際盈利能力更佳。澳優一季度盈利高於收入，主因是公司營運效率不斷提升，自有品牌奶粉結構比例提高，疫情下費用結構變化等。據中國輕工業網報道，澳優及旗下各品牌攜手澳優U基金已完成8批次愛心捐贈，累計捐贈超6760萬元款物和1萬個KF94醫用口罩。
疫情影響下，內資奶粉份額有望持續擴張。由於海外疫情發酵，物流受阻，部分地區或許存在政府要求奶粉有限供應當地情況。整體上，我們預計Q1外資奶粉由於發貨影響，整體份額有所下滑；預計該情況在Q2或許更加嚴重，有利內資奶粉份額擴張。澳優作為內資奶粉代表，受益於優秀供應鏈管理能力，和渠道營銷能力有望持續受益。
維持年初給出的戴維斯雙擊觀點，公司業績有望持續兑現。在上篇海普諾凱激勵的點評中，我們對市場關注的公司估值折價因素進行了詳細分析，我們認為，隨着內資逐漸成為港股奶粉板塊的邊際定價者，市場對公司管理機制認知更加充分，公司可持續發展的平台模式逐漸被認可，公司估值有望系統性抬升。我們認為超高端牛奶粉海普諾凱1897加速成長帶來的結構升級，和佳貝艾特潛在的提價有望進一步兑現公司業績。
盈利預測：考慮公司一季報未正式發佈，暫不調整盈利預測。預計公司20-22年收入為84.1、103.0、125.0億元，同比增長25%、23%、21%，預計公司20-22年調整後淨利潤12.2、16.3、21.3億元，同比增長30%、33%、31%，給予20年23倍的估值，目標價19港元，買入評級
風險提示：食品安全風險，股權攤薄風險，競爭格局惡化，海外疫情惡化
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