中教控股(00839.HK)：未來持續增長可期，維持“買入”評級，目標價14.30港元
機構：中泰國際
評級：買入
目標價：14.30港元
利潤增長超預期；派息帶來驚喜
中教公佈 1H20 業績：受新學校並表的影響，1H20 公司學生人數同比增長 23% 至 18.2 萬人；收入同比上升 41.6%至 27.7 億人民幣。整體毛利率 57.6%，與 1H19 持平。若以相同學校基準比較，上半年毛利率為 59.8%，（+200bps），證明運營效率持續提升。在成本控制方面，1H20 總運營開支（銷售費用+行政費用）2.4 億人民幣，同比上升 20.6%，低於我們預期。開支上升幅度小於收入增長幅度，再次證明公司的運營管理能力。1H20 經調整淨利潤 4.9 億，同比增加 32%。公司同時宣佈每股派息 0.134 港元，派息率從 30%提升至 50%，高於市場預期，給市場帶來驚喜。
擴建校區帶來增量；獨立學院專設將成為新的催化劑
廣東白雲學院新校區第一期已在 2019 年 9 月投入使用，第二期將於 2021 年 9 月投入使用，一共可容納 26000 人。松田學院的擴容也在持續推進，公司已與肇慶新區政府簽訂協議，政府向公司提供 1500 畝地，建立一個可容納 30000 名學校的新校園，預計未來分階段投入使用。擴建為兩所學校未來增長提供保障。近期獨立學院轉設的問題成為行業焦點。公司旗下有三所獨立學院，公司正在與監管部門以及公辦大校積極商討轉設細節。轉設後學校將不需要向大校每年支付管理費，預計將有利提升盈利水平。
調升利潤；目標價 14.30 港元
教育部於 4 月 10 發出住宿費退費預警，我們預期公司將退還 3 個月住宿費，影響 FY20E收入 2%-3%。由於疫情期間停課，我們預期 FY20E 配套服務費收入將下降 16%。我們分別下調 FY20E/FY21E 收入 4.7%/2.6%。但調升公司 FY20E/FY21E 淨利潤 8.5%/18.1%,以反映穩健的內生增長以及低於預期的運營開支。未來催化劑包括收購兼併、今年專升本擴招、獨立學院專設。我們維持 25 倍目標市盈率，新目標價 14.30 港元，對應 25 倍 FY21E市盈率。評級由“增持”上調至“買入”。
投資風險
1. 學校整合操作風險；2. 招生低於預期；3. 民辦教育政策風險。
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