福耀玻璃 (03606 HK) ：真金不怕火煉，逆境彰顯龍頭優勢，維持“買入”評級，目標價20.1港元
機構：招商證券國際
評級：買入
目標價：20.1港元
一季度淨利潤同比下降24.1%，受SAM和疫情拖累，但大幅優於行業
高端產品佔比提升，現金流強勁，保持高派息，體現產業護城河優勢
海外車企復工減輕疫情影響，維持買入評級及目標價20.1港元
業績下降但優於行業，維持高派息率
根據中國會計準則，公司一季度收入同比下降15.5%至42億元人民幣，淨利潤同比下降24.1%至4.6億元人民幣；剔除不可比的SAM業務虧損1,222萬歐元及匯兑損益影響，利潤同比下降22.3%，符合預期。關注點：1）雖然受疫情影響，但收入降幅明顯小於汽車行業產量跌幅45.2%，得益於產品高端化和海外市場滲透率提升。估計公司國內/海外收入同比下降27%/7.5%。2）毛利率同比下降4.6ppt至34.4%，環比回升0.6ppt，同比是合併SAM飾件業務拖累，環比體現公司降本增效能力提升。3）銷售/管理/研發費用率合計同比增加1.1ppt至22.1%，環比下降1.8ppt，經營效率環比改善。財務費用率同比下降5.2ppt至-1.4%（淨收入），源於匯兑收益0.7億元人民幣。4）經營活動現金流同比強勁增加17.2%至淨流入9億元人民幣。5）年報宣佈每10股派息7.5元人民幣，派息率維持在65%高位。
真金不怕火煉，逆境彰顯龍頭優勢
逆風週期公司競爭優勢突出：1）估計公司2019年高附加值產品佔比同比提高1.72ppt達36%，在受疫情嚴重衝擊的一季度也保持上升勢頭，體現公司產品競爭優勢在逆風週期持續提升。2）收入表現大幅跑贏行業體現龍頭領先優勢擴大。3）公司現金流強勁增長並維持高派息，彰顯公司抗風險信心強大。4）行業下行週期，長期訂單向抗風險能力強的龍頭集中，疫情結束後公司經營效率、市場空間和客户粘性有望再上新台階。
海外車企復工在即，疫情影響或進一步減弱
目前公司國內業務已經快速恢復，但海外業務目前仍受歐美地區車企因疫情停工的影響（3月中下旬開始）。從海外車企的最新復工時間表判斷（圖8），多數計劃5月上旬或中旬復工，但能否如期復工以及復產程度仍將視乎屆時當地疫情防控能力而定。
維持買入評級及目標價20.1港元
公司的產業護城河優勢顯著，經營風格穩健，高派息，尤其適合長線價值型投資者，建議在市場波動之時逢低吸納。維持公司買入評級及目標價20.1港元，相當於17xFY20EP/E或14.6xFY21EP/E。
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