招金礦業（01818.HK）：成本陣痛期將過，看好黃金上升期的盈利彈性，維持“買入”評級，目標價11.2港元
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
目標價：11.2港元
核心觀點
公司2019年全年黃金產量下降，綜合成本上升，業績有所影響。公司聚焦黃金主業，受益於礦產金產量恢復和工藝提升對成本的控制，預計2020年業績因金價上漲而顯著提升，中長期海域金礦投產後公司黃金產量增幅預計達到50%。給予公司2020年16倍EV/EBITDA估值，上調目標價至11.2港元，維持“買入”評級。
黃金產量下降使得綜合成本上升，公司業績受到影響。2019年公司實現營業收入63.30億元，同比下降11.08%；實現淨利潤4.38億元，同比減少23.96%；實現歸母淨利潤4.79億元，同比增加1.05%。主要原因：1）黃金產銷量下降；2）克金成本同比增加10.6%至171.2元/克；3）財務費用同比增加1.07億元。
聚焦黃金主業，受益於黃金價格上漲，預計2020年公司業績顯著提升。2019年公司黃金業務的營業收入分別為56.65億元，同比下降1.8%，對應利潤分別為9.90億元，同比下降6.6%。2019年公司礦產金/冶煉金產量19.77/12.93噸，同比-5.1%/-3.1%，其中下半年礦產金/冶煉金產量分別為9.64/7.18噸，環比4.8%/+24.9%。公司計劃2020年黃金總產量32.37噸，基本穩定，疊加黃金價格上漲和工藝提升帶來的成本控制，預計公司2020年業績顯著提升。
收購海域礦業，未來擴張潛力巨大。公司於2015年獲得海域金礦63.86%股權，截止2019年底黃金資源量高達562.4噸，儲量達到212.2噸，平均品位高達4.4克/噸。建成投產後預計歸屬公司權益產量約9.6噸，較公司當前自產金產量增長達到50%。海域金礦品味顯著高於公司當前的在產礦山，投產後克金成本預計低於公司現有水平，在提升產量同時將顯著提升公司自產金業務的利潤率。
風險因素：金價波動風險，黃金產量不及預期，海域金礦投產不及預期。
投資建議：公司聚焦黃金主業，依託旗下優質礦山實現穩健經營。預計未來海域礦業投產將帶來公司礦產金產量的大幅提升，公司業績將顯著增厚。調整公司2020-2021年歸母淨利潤預測為7.29/9.24億元（原預測6.41/7.68億元，根據金價假設調整），新增2022年預測14.47億元，對應2020-2022年EPS為0.22/0.28/0.44元。給予公司2020年16倍EV/EBITDA估值，上調目標價至11.2港元（原預測10.7港元），維持“買入”評級。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
