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《大行报告》瑞银:对内地零售银行中期前景仍看好 料更多支持消费政策出台
阿思达克 04-27 14:36
瑞银发表的研究报告指,受疫情影响内地消费者信贷首季收缩1.2%,而按揭业务所受影响较细,银行的新增贷款额度主要是倾向企业层面,相信将对净息差带来负面影响,而信用卡及预付卡的交易量受重大影响,严重冲击到费用收入表现。在资产质素方面,来自消费者贷款的不良贷款压力相信将较企业贷款更快反映,而由招商银行(03968.HK)发行的信用卡资产抵押证券显示,不良贷款组成比率由去年底的低於3.5%升至2月份的4%及3月份的5%,正面来看过期1至30日的贷款比例在2月急增後,3月份有所改善,相信是受惠内地逐步复工及收款力度增加。

报告认为大部分的内银管理层对消费者贷款自次季复苏看法审慎乐观,主要是看到自3月份以来信用卡交易逐步复苏,而不良贷款组成次季继续上升,而初步来看资产质素於3月有所改善,而大部分银行指出其目标是维持贷款额度配置计划,惟环球疫情状况仍然存在不确定性。

瑞银指出,虽然短期在贷款增长及资产质素方面仍面对挑战,但该行对零售银行中期展望看法仍然正面,总体而言,瑞银认为中国正步向消费者驱动的经济,而趋势亦将持续,去年本土消费贡献GDP约57.8%,并继续成最大的经济增长引擎,虽然内地消费者市场规模过去十年增长迅速,但按比例来看与其他国家比较仍有很大的增长空间。

另外该行认为内地家庭消费升级的趋势维持不变,整体内地消费增长稳健,而随着电商发展强劲,到去年底电商销售已占内地整体零售销售的23%,更重要的是在疫情期间电商销售维持相对稳定,2月份仍录按年增长3%。该行认为随着内地家庭消费增长,估计疫情影响减退後零售贷款将复苏,相信长期消费者信贷方面发展将正面。

瑞银补充,失业仍然是主要风险,即使中国自3月起逐渐复苏,现时具挑战的劳工市场环境料将在未来数季对消费及消费者信贷持续添压。该行早前预期消费者信贷不良贷款生成比率将由2.8%增至今年的5.8%,另消费者信贷增长将由16%放缓至7%,正面而言,由於保就业及稳社会成首要政策目标,料将有更多政策出台稳定劳工市场,继而利好消费及消费者信贷。

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