《大行報告》瑞銀:對內地零售銀行中期前景仍看好 料更多支持消費政策出台
瑞銀發表的研究報告指,受疫情影響內地消費者信貸首季收縮1.2%,而按揭業務所受影響較細,銀行的新增貸款額度主要是傾向企業層面,相信將對淨息差帶來負面影響,而信用卡及預付卡的交易量受重大影響,嚴重衝擊到費用收入表現。在資產質素方面,來自消費者貸款的不良貸款壓力相信將較企業貸款更快反映,而由招商銀行(03968.HK)發行的信用卡資產抵押證券顯示,不良貸款組成比率由去年底的低於3.5%升至2月份的4%及3月份的5%,正面來看過期1至30日的貸款比例在2月急增後,3月份有所改善,相信是受惠內地逐步復工及收款力度增加。
報告認為大部分的內銀管理層對消費者貸款自次季復甦看法審慎樂觀,主要是看到自3月份以來信用卡交易逐步復甦,而不良貸款組成次季繼續上升,而初步來看資產質素於3月有所改善,而大部分銀行指出其目標是維持貸款額度配置計劃,惟環球疫情狀況仍然存在不確定性。
瑞銀指出,雖然短期在貸款增長及資產質素方面仍面對挑戰,但該行對零售銀行中期展望看法仍然正面,總體而言,瑞銀認為中國正步向消費者驅動的經濟,而趨勢亦將持續,去年本土消費貢獻GDP約57.8%,並繼續成最大的經濟增長引擎,雖然內地消費者市場規模過去十年增長迅速,但按比例來看與其他國家比較仍有很大的增長空間。
另外該行認為內地家庭消費升級的趨勢維持不變,整體內地消費增長穩健,而隨著電商發展強勁,到去年底電商銷售已佔內地整體零售銷售的23%,更重要的是在疫情期間電商銷售維持相對穩定,2月份仍錄按年增長3%。該行認為隨著內地家庭消費增長,估計疫情影響減退後零售貸款將復甦,相信長期消費者信貸方面發展將正面。
瑞銀補充,失業仍然是主要風險,即使中國自3月起逐漸復甦,現時具挑戰的勞工市場環境料將在未來數季對消費及消費者信貸持續添壓。該行早前預期消費者信貸不良貸款生成比率將由2.8%增至今年的5.8%,另消費者信貸增長將由16%放緩至7%,正面而言,由於保就業及穩社會成首要政策目標,料將有更多政策出台穩定勞工市場,繼而利好消費及消費者信貸。
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