《大行報告》匯豐研究升海豐國際(01308.HK)評級至「買入」 目標價上調至8.5元
匯豐研究發表的報告指,受疫情影響海豐國際(01308.HK)股價自高位回落三成,投資者想知道事情演變情況以及壞消息是否已全部體現,該行指出公司在金融風暴間搶佔市場份額,2009年時即使亞洲集裝箱貨運跌7.7%,而環球亦跌9.5%,但公司規模逆市升10%。
該行指出過去多年公司鎖定了其成本及業務模式,並確保其盈利上行趨勢,參考行業的基本面,該行認為需求方面的不確定性仍然持續,而供應增長而大致反映。該行指出行業新船訂單跌至歷史低位,配合貿易戰糾紛及內地人工成本上升,生產由中國轉移至東南亞對公司有利,因為海豐國際在亞洲有高頻及高密度的網絡。
該行的基本情景預測2020年運量將跌5%而單價則料按年跌3%,該行將公司2020年盈利預測下調8%,並已部分反映低油價帶來的益處,該行對公司2020年可持續溢利的估算較市場預期低12%,而在最「熊」的情景之下,海豐的運量有機會跌20%,而該行的分析顯示,對公司股本回報率的影響將限在6.6個百分點內,所以估計對派息比率方面的影響有限,但實際派息金額料會向下。該行將公司評級由「持有」升至「買入」,目標價由7.8元升至8.5元,認為股價向下提供了買入機會。(el/a) ~
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