《大行報告》大摩下調長和(00001.HK)目標價至68元 維持「增持」評級
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,將長和(00001.HK)2020至2021年的預測下調,主要是根據其上市子公司或聯營公司的最新股價為基礎,以及疫情令其所有業務的盈利差過預期所致。然而,該行重申其「增持」投資評級,目標價由原來的85元下調至68元,認為其估值較其他香港同業及其過去表現相宜。
大摩指,當長和在進行企業活動時,其股價在歷史上往往會跑贏大市,之前已有數次類似的經驗,例如將電訊業務分拆、為電訊債務再融資、分拆訊號塔資產及出售零售資產等,這些活動都將有助公司估值重估。
然而,該行認為目前在疫情影響下的時機屬不利,其他的憂慮包括負面的盈利修訂、或會導致令人意外的負面派息,以及股權自由現金流模型(FCFE)收益率或會下降等。
大摩料長和2020年至2022年每股盈利預測各為8.06、9.05及9.5元(對比2019年為10.34元),料公司2020年至2022年每股派息預測均為2.7元(對比2019年每股派息3.17元)。
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