《大行報告》廣發證券料疫情對阿里巴巴(09988.HK)帶來短期業績壓力 維持「買入」評級
廣發證券發表報告表示,料新冠疫情對內地電商主業的影響已逐步消退,但2021財年首財季(截至2020年6月底止季度)對多項業務造成了一定增長壓力,預計在2020財年第四財季(截至2020年3月底止季度)阿里整體收入按年增長13%至1,052億人民幣,其中核心商業增長9%至863億人民幣。
據國統局數據,今年首季全國實物商品網上零售額按年增長5.9%,增速受疫情影響較為明顯。由於消費情緒低迷、宏觀環境的不確定因素較多,商家的信心受到影響,廣告投放有所減少。該行預計佣金和客戶管理收入(CMR)按年下滑8%,佣金收入受交易量下降影響,按年將下滑5%。
廣發證券指,新冠疫情對公司業績造成了一次性衝擊;但更多線下品牌尋求線上解決方案、消費需求向電商轉移,反而提高電商滲透率,又帶來淘寶直播、盒馬、釘釘等新業務的機遇。預計其2020財年至2022財年阿里巴巴收入分別為5,006億、6,692億及8,382億人民幣,對應增長各為32.8%、33.7%及25.3%增長,料非通用會計準則純利預測分別為1,352億、1,628億及2,056億人民幣,對應增長34.1%、20.4%及26.3%,維持其港股合理價值228.93港元,維持「買入」評級。
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