北京首都機場(00694.HK):業績提前觸底,迎接新一輪增長週期,維持“強烈推薦”評級
機構:方正證券
評級:強烈推薦
摘要:
事件:2020年4月21日,北京首都機場發佈2019年年度報告。
經營方面:報告期內,首都機場完成航班起降59.43萬架次,同比下滑3.21%;旅客吞吐量10,001.14萬人次,同比下滑0.96%。
財務方面:報告期內,公司實現營收108.10億元,同比減少4.01%,其中,非航空性業務實現營收67.22億元,同比增長12.9%,航空性業務實現營收40.89億元,同比減少23%;實現淨利潤24.19億元,同比減少15.8%。
點評:
1.旅客吞吐量破1億人次,收入受機場費取消和轉場影響略有下滑,成本控制良好,業績基本符合預期。
經營層面,2019年冬春航季首都機場日均批覆航班同比下滑4.25%,折算至全年對應航班量同比下滑1%左右,與旅客吞吐量下滑幅度基本一致,符合預期。與此同時,國際及地區旅客佔比隨着轉場開始逐步提升,旅客結構開始優化。業績層面,收入端略低於預期,整體增量主要由免税零售貢獻,貴賓服務和地面服務收入因場地修繕和合同到期等一次性因素增速不及預期拖累整體。成本端控制較好,營業成本增速1.75%是近年新低,營業成本增速放緩主要是公司收購GTC後租金大幅減免所致。未來成本端大幅增長的可能性較低,零售收入穩定增長,不會再出現特許經營委託管理費大幅調升的情況.
2.轉場高峯疊加疫情影響,2020年提前成為業績底部。
2020年是原定計劃的轉場高峯年,預計旅客吞吐量會下滑20%-30%至7500萬人次左右。疊加此次新冠疫情影響,預計今年旅客吞吐量會進一步下滑至6000萬人次,形成經營數據、盈利水平的絕對底部。
3.估值進入歷史底部區間,2021年有望迎來業績估值雙重回歸。
這次提前築底並非好事,而是對價值的一次性抹殺。但此次危機對首都機場的影響週期較短,中性預期2020年公司淨利潤因疫情影響下滑20億元,對公司DCF估值造成接近5%的影響。年初至今首都機場已經下跌29.01%,PE、PB估值均降至近十年的底部。危機投資適用於機場這類經營穩定,價值明確的絕對壟斷標的,預計首都機場有望在2021年迎來業績和估值的雙重回歸。
投資建議:預計公司2020-2022年營業收入分別為75.98、97.17、104.95億元,淨利潤分別為4.68、16.69、19.90億元,對應PE為48.00倍、13.46倍、11.29倍。繼續給予“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示:關聯交易金額超預期,首都機場預計在未來幾年開展“再造國門”的機場修繕計劃,總金額預估400億,推測主要修繕對象是T1航站樓。集團截止2018.12.31賬上有貨幣資金247.72億元,有息負債395.04億元,加上修繕計劃金額會造成現金流緊張,這一點可能是關聯交易金額超預期的誘因。免税不及預期、疫情持續時間超預期。

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