You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
閲文集團(00772.HK):拐點顯現:閲文觸底反彈,破曉曙光到來,維持“買入”評級,目標價39.15港元
格隆匯 04-24 11:12

機構:國金證券

評級:買入

目標價:39.15港元

基本結論

自有平台付費閲讀優勢穩固,1Q20 充值流水同比+30.7%。①充值跟蹤:根據我們獨家監測,1Q20 QQ 閲讀和起點充值流水分別同比+47.5%和+3.8%;3月 QQ 閲讀和起點充值流水分別同比+57.8%和+14.3%。②作家作品:閲讀平台繞不開的核心變量是“作家池” 。2019 年閲文作家覆蓋率 46%,內容覆蓋率 50%,頭部內容覆蓋率 68%,遠超同業。2018-2019 年,閲文年度新增作家40 萬人,新作家中 95 後佔 74%,年輕化程度高,迭代更新健康。

免費閲讀競爭趨緩,閲文的綜合變現效率更高。免費閲讀並沒有猛烈地搶奪原本重度閲讀用户,也很難搶走。從 30 日用户留存率來看,免費閲讀 App的留存率其實顯著低於付費閲讀 App。而 2020 年 3 月番茄免費小説和七貓免費小説的廣告投放量已顯著減少。考慮到閲文的騰訊渠道以輕度閲讀用户為主,自 2019 年下半年以來,除了孵化的獨立免費閲讀 App 飛讀外,還在騰訊渠道加了免費閲讀的內容。與其他競品不同,閲文內容以自有年份較久遠的頭部作品(盜版比較猖獗,本身付費率不高)和新作家新作品(作者曝光需求大於付費需求)為主,內容成本相對更低,並充分利用內容變現潛力。我們預計,2020 年免費閲讀新模式成熟運營可能一定程度彌合閲文非自有渠道對付費閲讀流量分配的限制。

行業精品劇或在 Q3 迎來劇荒,預計 2020 年新麗傳媒上線劇集數量翻倍。①監管邊際放鬆:2020 年影視製作公司存量劇集或穩定播出,同時具備優質劇本儲備和資金優勢的公司可能率先復甦,閲文旗下新麗傳媒兩者兼具,預計上線 8 至 10 部劇。②市場集中度提高:渠道端對於精品劇的需求越來越旺盛,相對 IP 資源和製作實力更強的新麗傳媒未來的議價能力有進一步提升空間。長期來看,如果資金和 IP 資源優勢持續加持,電視劇產能預計有每年擴充 1 至 3 部的潛力,且系列劇的工業化路徑也正在探索。

網文 IP 改編遊戲重要性凸顯,重點關注 2020 年與騰訊將合作的《全職高手》和《雪中悍刀行》。2020 年 2 月以來,閲文發行的《新斗羅大陸》遊戲暢銷榜排名顯著好於 2019 年,或持續貢獻流水。網文 IP 從拓寬粉絲基礎、尋求用户重合度且配以優質遊戲研發發行能力,或能有效降低買量成本,提高遊戲發行成功的概率。

投資建議

我們預計公司 20-22 年歸母淨利潤分別為 12.42/15.32/16.99 億元,採用SOTP 分部估值法,在線業務、新麗傳媒和其他版權運營業務預計 20 年利潤分別為 4.16/6.03/2.23 億元,分別給予 35x/25x/30x P/E 估值倍數,預計市值 398 億港元,對應目標價 39.15 港元,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示

內容監管風險;作家留存風險;行業競爭風險;商譽減值風險

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account