疫情对白酒行业影响：需求渐恢复，分化或加速
核心结论
疫情影响跟踪：疫情对全年白酒行业销售额影响或在15%左右。从目前看，2月白酒销量下滑约70-80%，3月同比约下滑50%，预计4月将环比继续改善，据此我们推测疫情对全年白酒销量影响10%-15%。展望未来，我们预计5月随着开学恢复，宴请有望恢复，白酒消费有望进一步改善。根据后续消费复苏进展的不同情况，我们在乐观、中性和悲观情景下，测算疫情对全年白酒销量的影响分别为10-15%、15%和15-17%。
从疫情影响结构来看，两端影响较小。1）由于自饮不受疫情影响，低端酒在疫情期间影响基本为零，甚至还略有增长。2）高端送礼需求较多，在春节前基本就完成了消费，受疫情影响相对较小。3）中高端和次高端主要消费场景在春节期间展开，且所处价格段目前竞争更激烈，受疫情影响较大。
从恢复速度来看：低端保持稳健，高端＞中高端＞次高端。1）3月疫情对白酒销量明显收窄：经销商样本3月白酒销售量跌幅由2月的-80%收窄至-50%，商超样本白酒品类3月销量跌幅由2月-70%收窄至-7%。2）高端控量叠加需求回升，价格率先企稳回升；低端光瓶酒景气持续，提价政策开始落实；次高端库存较大，随着渠道成交量逐渐放大，批价或短期承压。
恢复节奏判断：完全恢复或要看中秋国庆。当下渠道库存仍处较高位置，五一重点我们判断是在去库存，不应对价格抱有过大预期，预计量能恢复到去年同期的80-90%，但真正完全改善或得看中秋国庆。
对行业的中长期影响：加速分化和集中，尤其是300元以内的价格带。1）经销商分化集中：疫情会导致部分小经销商面临资金压力，从而导致经销商份额集中，也会导致经销商更愿意选择有跟多资金费用支出的品牌酒厂合作。尤其是300以内价格带品牌的经销商实力相对较弱，淘汰压力更大。2）疫情会导致部分小酒厂面临经营压力，市场份额进一步向大酒厂集中。特别是白酒行业300元以内产品销量占比90%以上，各区域行业集中度提升空间相对较大优势地产龙头品牌最受益。
投资建议：两条主线，一个左侧。1）持续看好贵州茅台（600519.SH）、顺鑫农业（000860.SZ）、五粮液（000858.SZ），短期受疫情影响小，中长期量价皆有空间；2）看好地产酒龙头品牌的弹性：在疫情后的需求复苏期，恢复更快的地产酒龙头品牌将会收割更多市场份额，主要建议关注山西汾酒（600809.SH）、古井贡酒（000596.SZ）和今世缘（603369.SH）；3）从周期角度看，3年一个小周期，看好次高端在明年消费升级加速背景下的扩容，建议主要关注水井坊（600779.SH）和山西汾酒（600809.SH）。
风险提示：疫情二次蔓延，宏观经济下行，提价不及预期
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