東陽光藥（01558.HK）：多層次銷售網絡已成，期待新品陸續兑現，維持“買入”評級，目標價61.0港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：61.0港元
投資要點
業績持續強勁增長：公司2019年實現營業收入62.24億元人民幣（下同），同比增長147.9%；歸母淨利潤19.19億元，同比增長103.6%；若不考慮可轉換債影響，調整後歸母淨利潤為20.96億元，同比增長122.4%。
銷售渠道多元化助力可威持續增長：公司產品目前覆蓋了2000多家三級醫院，8000多家二級醫院以及10萬家基層醫療機構。隨着渠道下沉策略的持續推進，基層市場有望進一步打開。此外，公司通過與九州通合作在OTC渠道的拓展上取得顯著突破，也與阿里健康、華潤商業等知名線上 運營商展開合作，有望打通線上銷售渠道。
可威憑藉多維優勢，短期不懼競爭：目前有若干企業正在開發奧司他韋仿製藥，最快預計將於近一兩年上市。考慮到每年流感季可威均供不應求， 新產能注入市場對產品價格的衝擊仍然可控。同時，在無法確保產能滿足市場需求的情況下，短期內對奧司他韋進行帶量採購的可能性較小。
新品上市潮來臨，優化產品管線：3款產品在第二批帶量採購中中標，將為公司帶來收入增量。近期引進的33個化學仿製藥中，5個已獲生產批件，26個處於上市申請階段，預計2020年將有多個產品獲批。此外，公司的抗丙肝藥物、胰島素系列產品、非胰島素降糖藥等在研產品也處於上市前夕。隨着新產品的陸續上市，公司的收入結構將不斷優化。
盈利預測與估值：考慮到疫情對公司臨牀試驗開展、新產品上市進度、業務拓展等方面產生影響，我們下調2020-2021年預測收入至80.35和91.95億元，2022年預測收入為101.46億元，同比增長29.1%、14.4%和 10.3%，2020-2021年下調幅度分別為3.5%和10.9%；下調2020-2021年預測歸母淨利潤至24.72和28.45億元，2022年預測歸母淨利潤為31.61億元，同比增長28.8%、15.1%和11.1%，2020-2021年下調幅度分別為4.1%和12.5%。維持目標價61.0港元，對應2020-2022年分別為11.06、9.69和8.77倍市盈率，20PEG為 0.51，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：疫情影響超預期，市場競爭加劇，新產品銷售不達預期，流感發病率下降風險。
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