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《大行報告》匯豐研究降海通國際(00665.HK)及國泰君安國際(01788.HK)評級至「持有」 下調目標價
阿思達克 04-23 09:55
匯豐研究發表的報告指,近期香港的股市及債市均有較大的波動,今年以來恆指跌16%,而亞太區高息企業債的整體回報指數亦跌7%,現時投資者主要關注兩大領域,一方面是孖展方面或出現減值損失,該行指出融資收入是券商的主要收入來源,但信貸風險亦會帶來拖累,該行指出去年海通國際(00665.HK)及國泰君安國際(01788.HK)均錄較大的減值虧損,分別佔其年度純利的41%及101%,雖然管理層指今年無重大信貸風險,但該行對減值風險維持審慎看法,不排除之後減值比例較高的可能性。

另一方面,該行認為投資者關注潛在的交易損失,去年交易收益佔香港券商收入約40%,意味市場風險窗口較大,估計今年投資回報將自去年高位下跌,但最終回報向上抑或向下仍要視乎市場環境會否復甦。

該行將海通及國泰君安的2020-2021年盈利預測下調,並將海通目標價由2.7元降至1.8元,國泰君安目標價則由1.9元降至1.5元,並將兩家公司評級由「買入」降至「持有」,認為信貸風險憂慮增加,加上資產亦存在波動,認為券商需要時間才能令股本回報率回復至過往的雙位數水平,而費用收入業務亦需要時間建立。

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