一文綜合券商於聯通(00762.HK)公布季績後最新目標價及觀點
聯通(00762.HK)今早股價造好，券商指旗下固網業務成為業績亮點。公司昨日(22日)收市後公布截至3月底止首季業績，純利按年跌13.9%至31.66億元人民幣，收入按年升0.9%至738.24億元人民幣，當中服務收入增長2.3%至683.07億元人民幣，除息稅折舊攤銷前溢利(EBITDA)按年跌5.8%至235.61億元人民幣。首季移動出帳用戶平均每月每戶收入(ARPU)為40元人民幣。
聯通首季移動出帳用戶達3.11億戶，按季跌2.3%，淨減746萬戶；其中4G用戶2.54億戶，增長近0.3%。固網寬帶用戶數增長1.62%至8,483.1萬戶。聯通表示，首季面對市場飽和、激烈市場競爭及新型冠狀病毒疫情等挑戰，未來將集中資源積極發展中高端差異化產品。
【季績受撥備拖累 指5G開支合理】
瑞銀表示，聯通首季純利按年跌14%，較該行預期的倒退7%為差，但大部分來自資產減值及壞帳撥備共計15億元人民幣。考慮到新冠疫情，收入增長2.3%及固網收入增長4%實屬穩健，工業互聯網業務持續強勁動力，收入按年升32%。基於首季利下跌主要受成本入帳時間問題及去季業績未計入資產減值，預期公司未來盈利表現更佳。該行給予聯通「買入」評級，目標價由6.95港元降至6.65港元。
美銀證券認為，隨中國第二季開始有序恢復經濟活動，預期聯通服務收入增長將相應加快。該行又指，聯通去季初取消無限數據計劃，ARPU已穩定在40元人民幣。公司擴大5G用戶基礎，相信ARPU將會回穩。該行認為聯通移動服務收益持續增長、工業互聯網收入錄雙位數按年增長、利息支出減少及5G資本開支年內維持合理水平，均支持該行給予聯通「買入」評級，目標價維持10港元。
本網最新綜合14間券商對其投資評級及目標價，3間券商下調目標價，12間給予「買入」、「增持」或「跑贏大市」評級：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
摩根大通│增持│10.5元
美銀證券│買入│10元
大和│買入│9.2元
花旗│買入│8.5元
中銀國際│買入│8.4元
高盛│買入│9元->8.2元
摩根士丹利│增持│8元
傑富瑞│買入│7.44元
里昂│買入│7.7元
招商證券國際│買入│11.5元->7元
瑞銀│買入│6.95元->6.65元
瑞信│跑贏大市│6.15元
中金│中性│6.1元
野村│中性│4.8元
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券商│觀點
摩根大通│固網業務非常強勁，盈利能力受壓
美銀證券│5G推出有助公司控制ARPU進一步下滑
大和│季績超預期，工業互聯網推動收入增長
花旗│盈利遜預期，固網業務為今年收益增長主要動力
中銀國際│固網業務成為業績亮點
高盛│收入符預期，EBITDA遜預期，EBITDA率下降
摩根士丹利│一般及行政開支超預期，工業互聯網收入增長強勁
傑富瑞│季績符預期
里昂│5G應用及客戶數字目標未受新冠疫情影響
招商證券國際│業務展望穩定，5G用戶增加推動業績改善
瑞銀│實際盈利較公布理想
瑞信│季績符預期，相信較中移動防守性較少
中金│5G穩定收入增長但EBITDA率仍受壓
野村│成本上升導致盈利下滑
(fc/w)
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