安信國際：維持安踏(2020.HK)“買入”評級 目標價74港元
安信國際發佈報告稱，已在3月30日發佈的研究報告中下調安踏體育(2020.HK)財務預測，是由於公共衞生事件的影響，Q1營運數據符合預期，維持原有預測，預計公司2020-2022年EPS為2.41/ 2.93/3.38元，給予其2020年28倍PE，目標價74港元，較現價有17.3%的上升空間，維持“買入”評級。
安信國際稱，公共衞生事件對公司的影響主要集中在上半年，從目前的運營情況來看，各品牌的銷售情況均在逐漸恢復正常。雖然該影響還未完全消散，但考慮到安踏在體育品牌領域的龍頭地位和經營的穩定情況，安信國際認為隨着國內消費市場的逐步回暖，公司業績也將會得到快速恢復。此外，公司各品牌增長態勢依舊明顯並有望在未來持續。
安信國際表示，安踏於近日公佈了2020年Q1流水情況，其中安踏主品牌流水同比下滑20%-25%(此前指引為20%-30%的下滑)，FILA流水中個位數下滑(此前指引為10%-20%的下滑)，其他品牌流水同比高單位數下滑，在公共衞生事件影響下，整體表現均好於此前指引。拆分來看，安踏主品牌的大貨線下/兒童線下/線上銷售流水分別取得20%+下滑/25%左右下滑/中單位數增長，零售折扣約為7折左右，庫銷比超過5，線上銷售發力，庫存控制良好。FILA流水下滑情況大大好於此前預期，線下方面Classic/ Kids/Fusion分別實現20%+下滑/低單位數下滑/中單位數增長，線上增長為160%，實現了線上線下的產品互通，庫銷比增至8以上。其他品牌流水同比高單位數下滑，其中DESCENTE流水取得中雙位數增長，主要來自線上170%的高速增長。
安信國際還稱，Amer短期或將受公共衞生事件影響。海外公共衞生事件仍在蔓延中，對Amer來説，主要產品是冬季運動用品，雖然目前已不是銷售旺季，但公共衞生事件是否會持續更長時間還未知，海外國家也紛紛開始呼籲居家隔離，因此對產品的銷售而言或將受到一定影響。但長期來看，Amer的戰略佈局將不會出現太大變化，仍將以培育3個10億歐元的品牌為目標，並加快對中國市場的開發，使得安踏的國際佈局更加完善，因此短期的事件不會對長期策略產生太大變動。
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