植耀輝: 油價竟可「平過水」 匯控(00005.HK)難關難難過
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，「油價平過買水?」這個看似講笑的說法，估不到變成事實!5月紐約期油「史無前例」跌至負數，竟然會出現「貼錢賣油」行情。有一個疑問，既然石油供大於求，又沒有足夠倉儲，為何油公司不索性關閉油井呢?所以筆者亦搜集了不少資料，現簡單跟大家分享。
美國開採頁岩氣/油之方法，最為人熟悉的便是水力壓裂法。當氣/油從裂縫釋放，便能開始收集。不過，一旦開採後要「叫停」，除非將所有裂縫重新貫水或其他化學物質，但成本可能十分高。而且頁岩油與傳統油井不同之處，在於頁岩油開發周期短，一個頁岩油氣井產量在出油後第二個月已達到峰值，而根據EIA報告，單口頁岩油氣井前兩年的衰減率分別達到69%和39%，首三年的產量亦接近其生命周期產油量之80%，當然現時不少美國油公司已暫停開闢新井，只是要平衡供需關係，短期應該難以達到矣。
而且，由於供需關係依然失衡，除非短時間內經濟活動能顯著出現改善，否則期油價格「崩盤」的情況將可能每月上演。但更嚴重的情況是，有關衝擊將可能導致數以百計油企瀕臨破產邊緣，並令美國當地相關垃圾債「爆煲」機會急增，對宏觀經濟亦難免會帶來深遠影響。
除油價外，有關匯控(00005.HK)的爭議亦未見減少。投資者對其未有派發去年第四季股息猛烈批評，尤其是股價已進行除淨安排，按理實在是講不通，哪會想到堂堂一間大型銀行會有此安排?問題是今次英國七大金融機構均遭到英國PRA(審慎監管局)「溫馨提示」，所以儘管匯控截至去年底核心一級資本充足率達14.7%，但今次情況屬「不能矣，非不為也」。
只是有一個更現實的問題，就是投資者是否仍要執著於買匯控呢?有不少投資老手指匯控現價「抵買」，又或來年待經濟好轉會續派息。現價是否抵買見仁見智，須知道即使疫情過後，全球經濟仍面臨嚴峻挑戰，而在央行無限量放水下，銀行息差只會再進一步收窄；何況即使憧憬經濟狀況轉好，論值博或「反底」板塊可能有更多好選擇，到時收租及零售股或者更值得留意。所以匯控是否非買不可，這可能是一個沒有答案的問題，但基於筆者對未來經濟看法悲觀，所以亦幾可肯定，不會將匯控加入買入名單之列。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，並未持有相關股份)~
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