復星旅遊文化（01992.HK）投資價值分析報告：營造家庭歡樂，擁抱品質生活 ，首次評級為買入，目標價11.2港元
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
目標價：11.2港元
核心觀點
公司是全球領先的休閒度假村集團，資源壁壘深厚，管理經驗豐富。看好國內休閒遊市場增長潛力，公司作為稀缺性標的有望長期受益於品質升級。首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
休閒遊景氣穿越週期，國內市場尚處萌芽。近20年全球主要目的地休閒旅遊市場消費規模CAGR約3.9%，長期增長趨勢向好。對標歐美髮達國家，國內休閒遊頻次和人均消費提升空間顯著，世界旅遊業理事會（WTTC）預計未來5年國內休閒遊市場複合增速可達12.2%。結合歷次經濟危機前後表現，娛樂消費均呈現明顯的反彈與復甦。隨着人口結構調整和新一代父母觀念變化，預計親子度假將為休閒遊市場貢獻生力軍，國內優質度假產品供給缺口將進一步擴大。
精緻“一價全包”，打造高端一站式目的地。公司是聚焦休閒度假的全球領先綜合性旅遊集團之一，旗下ClubMed度假村經營穩健，通過輕資產管理輸出快速落子中國市場，我們測得其潛在擴張空間可達40-50家以上。此外，公司緊扣中高端遊客需求，強化內容運營、營銷推廣和規劃佈局，通過將“一價全包”理念和體驗性旅遊產品注入休閒遊目的地，先後在三亞、麗江和太倉落地拳頭產品。長期來看，預計三亞、麗江、太倉項目穩態貢獻收入約19.5億、5.3億、19.7億，EBITDAMargin可達約43%-45%。
優質資源卡位，前瞻產業佈局。公司網羅全球資源後基本實現全產業鏈覆蓋，廣泛的度假村網絡難以被複制。管理層較早意識到國內休閒遊消費的巨大潛力，憑藉豐富運營經驗進行前瞻性佈局。公司自主打造的FOLIDAY生態系統，在各業務間形成資源共享、交叉銷售，充分發掘和整合更多變現機會。公司資產模式雖重、財務槓桿偏高，但通過配套地產銷售快速回籠資金的方式形成相對良性的資金循環，旅遊項目爬坡期後預計將貢獻穩定現金流和長期回報。
風險因素：地緣政治、自然災害等因素影響；疫情造成的持續性影響；新項目地產預售情況不達預期；ClubMed管理輸出模式在國內市場推廣進展低於預期。
投資建議：疫情造成短期財務影響較大，預計2020-22年公司歸母淨利約為-2.75億、6.70億、8.52億元；經調整後EBITDA分別為27.1億、48.4億、52.9億元。對應21年動態PE約11x，EV/EBITDA約8x。我們認為短期估值水平難以體現對未來新項目的成長預期，採用分部估值法來看：2021年ClubMed和亞特蘭蒂斯給予動態EV/EBITDA約7x和12x，對應存量項目約229.3億元；麗江、太倉按現金流回報測算對應NPV約51.6億元；扣減有息負債後資產淨值約210.7億元。綜合考慮流動性等因素，40%折現後價值約126.4億元，對應每股價值10.2元（摺合11.2港元）。疫情致當期業績和估值均回落，股價存在較大修復空間；首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
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