花旗:下調玖紙(2689.HK)目標價至10.5港元 評級“買入”
花旗發表研究報告,將玖龍紙業(2689.HK)目標價由12港元,調低12.5%至10.5港元,維持“買入”評級。
報告表示,花旗最近收到美國要求,認為玖紙作為國內消費恢復的良好代表,因此主持電話會議。電話會議中提到,受出口需求的嚴重拖累,4月份的國內消費增長減慢;4月份玖紙產品平均銷售單價下滑;內地取消對美國進口進入廢紙(OCC)的報復性關税;由於旅行禁令,新生產無法啟動;儘管有公共衞生事件的影響,仍然有慷慨的股息政策。
花旗將玖紙2020-2022年的盈利預測下調7%-14%,預計下半年玖紙的淨利潤將同比下降10%至14.4億元人民幣,相比上半年增長1%,但仍然偏好玖紙多於理文造紙(2314.HK),主要因薄紙利潤率持續承壓。
花旗表示,內地海關建議直接出口集裝箱板佔2018年總量的約5%。但是如果考慮到轉口需求,認為相關比例至少為20%。由於全球大多數城市的公共衞生事件大流行和封鎖城市,特別是在美國/歐盟,令轉口需求停滯不前,因此內地大多數商店在3月下旬之前重新營業,但4月初硬紙板產品的平均銷售單價持續下跌的趨勢。管理層認為線上和超市外賣業務增長強勁,但花旗認為這隻佔總需求10%多。

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