《大行報告》瑞銀:油組等減產不能阻止全球石油庫存迅速增加 重申看淡亞洲上游油企
瑞銀發表研究報告,指全球石油價格昨日(20日)急跌,包括布蘭特期油下跌9%以及紐約期油跌至負值。據市場分析顯示,近月紐約期油的急跌似乎是與市場技術因素有關,因紐油5月合約今日(21日)到期;部分原因則是與基本面有關。
該行又相信,油組減產不會扭轉全球石油庫存快速增長的局面,指瑞銀一直對油價存負面看法,而此事件反映出極端的供過於求情況。該行預期,今年第二季的全球石油庫存將每日增加約1,600萬桶,料布蘭特期油的價格平均每桶25美元,紐約期油則為每桶20美元。雖然認為油組同意每日減產970萬桶,加上美國、加拿大、挪威及巴西等國的潛在減產是邁出重要的一步。然而,該行預期今年第二季的需求將每日下跌1,700萬桶,而同時原油庫存將會在第二季繼續急劇增加,這將會對石油現貨價及亞太區的上游油企構成壓力。
該行重申對大部分從事勘探及開採業務的亞洲油企的負面看法,包括中石油(00857.HK),給予「沽售」投資評級,而中海油(00883.HK)及中海油田服務(02883.HK)均予「中性」投資評級,認為中石油相對於世界及地區同業而言是表現最弱的,因為其石油生產成本高,加上今年預測股息收益率最差。
該行最看好的油企包括中石化(00386.HK),認為其定位將優於同業,雖然油價低企時會損害勘探及開採業務的盈利,但中石化則將會在中國石油需求復甦時首先受惠,使公司在提升利用率及加工廉價中東重質含硫原油上處於有利位置。
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