星展香港對恆指一年目標26,300點 看好阿里、騰訊及萬洲等12股
星展(香港)香港及中國內地股票策略師林子津表示,經過早前的下挫後,港股近期有技術性反彈,但市場風險胃納仍低,最近一兩周亦有較明顯的獲利回吐現象,令指數出現上升阻力。
他指,該行對恆生指數的12個月目標為26,300點,較五年平均低一個標準差。雖然現時市場出現獲利回吐,但在疫情角度,由於各國政府應對疫情能力提高,新增確診個案有緩和跡象,因此估計即使有新一輪跌浪,幅度亦可能不及上一輪跌幅深,未必會跌至上次的低位。至於往後需留意市場需求下降及訂單延遲,對內地製造業和企業盈利造成的影響,以及對失業率及經濟等帶來的連鎖效應,預料上市公司業務表現仍會較穩健,但中小企則會面臨比較大壓力。
他提到,是次新型肺炎疫情或可於今年6月至7月基本完結,世界主要國家料可解除封鎖,經濟或有望於第四季復甦,期間若市場上正在研發的疫苗或藥物治療有良好進展,或可為市場帶來較為利好的消息。
板塊方面,該行看好增長前景良好及較具防守性利業,包括內房、中資教育、中資物管、中資電訊商、食品、香港電訊商、香港房託、互聯網及鐵路基建等行業,評級為「增持」。另外看淡中資汽車、零售、金融科技、博彩、香港銀行及油氣業等,評級為「沽售」。
星展又推薦12隻相關股份,包括阿里巴巴(09988.HK)、中教控股(00839.HK)、中鐵建(01186.HK)、中電信(00728.HK)、中國鐵塔(00788.HK)、華潤啤酒(00291.HK)、恆安國際(01044.HK)、香港電訊(06823.HK)、港交所(00388.HK)、領展(00823.HK)、騰訊(00700.HK)及萬洲國際(00288.HK)。
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