一文了解大行於中移动(00941.HK)公布季绩後最新评级、目标价及观点
中移动(00941.HK)今早股价偏软，昨日(20日)收市後公布首季度业务数据，纯利按年轻微倒退0.8%至235亿元人民币，季度营运收入按年下降2%至1,813亿人民币。期内除息税折旧摊销前溢利(EBITDA)按年跌5.8%至685亿元人民币。公司首季度平均每月每户收入(ARPU)46.9元人民币，按年降6.7%，降幅较上年收窄，其中有线宽带ARPU为31.3元人民币。
中移动截至3月底止移动业务客户总数9.46亿，季内客户数减少398万。其中4G客户总数7.52亿户，5G客户总数3,172万户。手机上网流量增长43.4%，平均每月每户手机上网流量由7.1GB升至8.3GB。受OTT替代及新冠疫情影响，总通话分钟数按年跌16.3%至6,614亿分钟。同期有线宽带客户总数1.91亿户，首季度净增410万户。
【纯利轻微跌 5G呈正面】
汇丰环球研究认为，中移动提供兼具派息及盈利坚韧的吸引力，市场对公司推动5G计划目前有更清晰能见度，资本开支低於市场预期。该行指目前新业务发展困难，但公司有机会推出强劲网络以显示其受惠於5G推出。该行认为，电讯业务环境缓慢地复常及中国移动具防守性的特质，促使该行移除对该股的风险溢价，有关改动抵销该行对中国移动收入及EBITDA预测下调的影响，企业对5G服务需求为潜在正面催化剂。该行给予中移动「买入」评级，目标价由64港元上调至69港元。
高盛指出，中移动首季EBITDA数据，意味服务EBITDA率为40.6%，按年及按季分别下跌3.3及3.1个百分点，相信EBITDA率下降是基於5G网络营运及支援成本。该行预期5G网络相维修成本将进一步上升，尤其於第二季。另一方面，首季销售开支受新冠疫情导致线下销售及市务活动受影响而减少，同时亦有赖於公司加强销售及市务成本控制。该行下调对中国移动2020年至2022年EBITDA预测3.6%至4%，反映5G相关成本上升，同时上调同期收入预测2%至4.4%反映折旧成本减少，目标价由64港元降至61.8港元，维持「中性」评级。
本网最新综合11间券商对其投资评级及目标价，各有1间券商上调及下调目标价，10间给予「买入」、「增持」、「跑赢大市」或「跑赢同业」评级：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
美银证券│买入│92元
摩根士丹利│增持│85元
瑞信│跑赢大市│78.5元
花旗│买入│78元
大和│买入│75.7元
摩根大通│增持│73元
野村│买入│72元
汇丰环球研究│买入│64元->69元
瑞银│买入│68元
中金│跑赢行业│65元
高盛│中性│64元->61.8元
券商│观点
美银证券│5G服务有助部分抵销新冠疫情影响
摩根士丹利│5G业务动力强劲支持全年业绩指引
瑞信│首季业绩坚固，纯利稳定
花旗│收入稳固增长，未受新冠疫情显着影响
大和│5G业务开展表现强劲
摩根大通│首季业绩受新冠疫情影响，盈利稳定
野村│中移动在5G仍占领导地位
汇丰环球研究│兼具派息及盈利坚韧吸引力
瑞银│首季业绩轻微逊预期，受成本高於预期影响
中金│首季业绩稍受新冠疫情影响，5G收入及成本同时上升
高盛│首季业绩符预期，净利润按年稳定
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