安踏体育(02020.HK)：Q1零售表现超预期，FILA加速复苏拉动估值中枢上移，维持“买入”评级，目标价70港元
机构：东方证券
评级：买入
目标价：70港元
核心观点
公司披露 2020Q1 最新运营表现，安踏品牌流水同比下滑 20-25%， FILA 品牌流水同比中单位数下滑，其他品牌流水同比高单位数下滑。
一季度 FILA 受电商和潮牌系列拉动整体流水表现超预期，安踏品牌基本符合预期：1）FILA品牌：实际流水同比中单位数下滑显著好于公司原预期（原预计 10-20%下滑），其中电商实现 1.6 倍增长，拉动明显，主要受益于疫情初期的快速反应、公司线上和线下的产品互通、小程序/私域流量的成功引流等原因，Fila Classic / Fusion / Kids 分别实现-20%下滑/正增长/低单位数下滑。2）安踏品牌：实际流水同比下滑 20-25%在公司原预测区间内（原预计 20%-30%下滑），其中大货和儿童均有超 20%下滑，电商实现中单位数增长。3）其他品牌：实际流水同比高单位数下滑，其中迪桑特为最大亮点，同比中双位数增长。
从 4月草根调研信息，FILA品牌仍在快速复苏中，安踏品牌也在稳健恢复之中。我们预计 FILA 上半年零售有望正增长，下半年有望挑战 30%的增长目标；安踏上半年零售同比降幅预计在双位数左右，下半年恢复到双位数左右的增长。全年期间费用的控制也将为盈利带来空间。
当时市场对公司股价反弹后的估值较为纠结，我们认为运动服饰中长期向上的景气度和优良的竞争结构为龙头估值奠定了基本保障，同时短期公司更强的复苏韧性和业绩超预期可有望拉动其整体估值水平不断上移。回顾历史，以 2019 年为例，公司定期经营数据的持续超预期也拉动了其估值的不断抬升和年度间的提前切换。我们预计随着国内疫情的好转，FILA 的表现有望持续好于市场预期，带动整体估值走出类似 2019 年的上升走势。
财务预测与投资建议
我们目前维持公司未来三年盈利预测 （不排除超预期可能） ，预计2020-2022年的每股收益分别为 2.12、2.89 和 3.46 元, 维持 2020年 30倍 PE，对应目标价为 70 港币（63.5 元人民币），维持公司“买入”评级。
风险提示：国内外疫情的反复，海外疫情对 AMER 的冲击，人口代际切换带来时尚变迁风险，创始人团队在战略和管理等方面的可能波动
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