李寧(02331.HK：)2020Q1經營數據點評：Q1銷售降幅略好於預期，2020Q4訂貨會延遲，維持“增持”評級
機構：華西證券
評級：增持
事件概述
公司公告最新運營數據：2020Q1 整個平台流水同比下降 10%-20%高段，同店受疫情階段性關店影響無符合標準的數據，2020Q4訂貨會也因疫情延遲至 4月中下旬舉行。
分析判斷
線上/線下分別同比增長 10%-20%低段/下降 20%-30%低段，符合並略好於市場預期。分拆來看，線上業務同比增長 10%-20%低段，線下渠道（含零售及批發）同比下降 20%-30%低段，其中零售渠道同比下降 30%-40%中段、批發渠道同比下降 10%-20%高段，略好於市場預期。我們分析，（1）批發渠道降幅低於零售渠道，可能和公司提前 2019Q4 去庫存有關、加盟商渠道庫存壓力相對不大；（2）根據安踏公告 Q1 安踏主品牌/FILA 零售額分別同比下降 20-25%/中單位數，我們估計安踏整體下降在 10-20%中段，李寧降幅整體和安踏相當、降幅略高於安踏；（3）分結構來看，李寧線上增速低於安踏整體（40-50%） ，但高於安踏主品牌（中單位數） ，線下降幅和安踏相當（-20-25%） 。
線下各分部銷售點均有所減少，但門店佈局更優化。20Q1 李寧（不含李寧 YOUNG）品牌門店數量較年初淨減少224 家至 6225 家，其中零售較年初淨減少 26 家至 1266 家，門店總數同比下降 10%，由此同店銷售同比下降約20-30%中段；批發較年初淨減少 198 家至 4959 家，門店總數同比增長 1.02%，由此單店出貨額同比下降約 10-20%高段。20Q1李寧YOUNG品牌門店數量較年初淨減少75家至 1026家，門店同比增長25.89%。
投資建議
我們認為，公司提前在 2019Q4 進行大幅去庫存，提前釋放了一部分經銷商的庫存風險，全年來看疫情的不確定影響仍較大，但不改公司長期趨勢。公司未來增長在於：（1）費用率改善、提價和中高端產品佔比提升帶動毛利率提高共同貢獻淨利率提升空間，2020 年目標達到 10-10.5%；（2）線上業務有望維持高增長； （3）線下渠道結構不斷優化，部分直營轉經銷店，從批發到注重終端流水增長，進一步渠道下沉。維持 20/21/22 年 EPS 為0.61/0.75/0.93元，對應目前PE為36/29/24倍，維持“增持”評級。
風險提示
時尚運動流行趨勢變化風險、庫存積壓惡化風險、終端折扣加大風險、電商增速放緩、系統性風險。
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